Mock Drafts

I haven't been paying too much attention to the Eastern and Western Conference finals, although I did manage to catch LeBron's shot as it unfolded, before heading out of town for the rest of the weekend. For the most part, I've been reading up on the likeliest of the most likely lottery picks. Ricky Rubio, it seems, is playing it a bit coy, telling people-- via his agent, Dan Fegan-- that he only wants to play in Los Angeles or, worse case scenario, Sacramento. Meanwhile, Blake Griffin remains a lock to go first overall. He'd have to measure under 6-5 to fall to No. 2. That he plays next year in a Clippers jersey, however, remains to be seen, as rumors out of Los Angeles have the Clippers' front office weighing whether or not to trade the pick. That's a tough call, either way. I'd so much rather Griffin and Chris Kaman on my roster than Zach Randolph, but I doubt very much there's a team out there willing to accept a trade for Randolph, his horrible attitude and his even worse contract. Griffin, if traded, would undoubtedly land the Clippers a much more attractive package. 

As for the Knicks, I see them taking either Stephen Curry, if he's still on the board, or North Carolina's Ty Lawson. I've heard murmurs of Walsh and D'Antoni warming up to USC's Demar DeRozan, but his 16 percent three-point percentage casts some serious doubts on Walsh's and D'Antoni's rumored budding man-crushes. Besides, they already have a better version of DeRozan on their roster. His name is Wilson Chandler.   

I hope to put together my own mock draft in the next couple of days. In the meantime, here are three--DraftExpress, Knickerblogger and The Baseline--that make sense to me, give or take a few players. 

DraftExpress:

1. Clippers: Blake Griffin
   
2. Grizzlie: Hasheem Thabeet
   
3. Thunder: James Harden
   
4. Kings: Ricky Rubio
   
5. Wizards: Jordan Hill
   
6. T'Wolves: Tyreke Evans
   
7. Warriors: Brandon Jennings
   
8. Knicks: Stephen Curry
   
9. Raptors: Demar DeRozan
   
10. Bucks: Johnny Flynn
    
11. Nets: DeJuan Blair
    
12. Bobcats: Gerald Henderson
    
13. Pacers: Jrue Holiday 
    
14. Suns: Earl Clark
    
15. Pistons: Austin Daye
    

Knickerblogger:

1. LA Clippers - Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma: If Mike Dunleavy’s recent declaration of undying love for Blake Griffin is true then he’ll probably trade players to clear room for his new beloved. If it’s not true then the #1 pick may represent a rare opportunity to clean up a roster that is a mess, possibly in one fell swoop. (Previously: Ricky Rubio)

2. Memphis - Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain: Choosing Rubio has its advantages, regardless of whether he wants to play in Memphis. His rights become an asset for the asset-starved Grizz. Even though Memphis should do this, no player in this draft generates more ambivalence for me than Rubio. The talent is evident, but there are lots of reasons it may not work out for the team that drafts him. (Previously: Demar DeRozan)

3. Oklahoma City - Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn: Thabeet may be a one-trick pony but his trick is precisely what OKC needs. He’s a defensive anchor, with a decent shot at becoming a more athletic Mutombo. The downside is that he will probably never be even an average offensive player. But, in this draft there’s something to be said for being fairly certain of a player’s “floor”. (Previously: Brandon Jennings)

4. Sacramento - Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy: Sactown will most likely take the best PG left on the board. I suspect Rubio would prefer Sactown over Memphis, and perhaps a deal can be struck. (Previously: Blake Griffin)

5. Washington - Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona: The Wiz is the team I think most likely to deal its pick. If they keep it they’ll be looking for depth that could help in a pinch, but with some upside. Hill is a lot like Chris Wilcox. (Previously: Hasheem Thabeet)

6. Minnesota - Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis: I think Minny opts for the highest upside player on the board regardless of position. It could be Evans, depending on workouts. It could also be Hill, Jennings, DeRozan, or Lawson. Almost literally nothing they do would surprise me, which I hope they interpret as a challenge. (Previously: Evans)

7. Golden State - James Harden, G, Arizona State: I’ve loved to watch this kid play since he was a junior in high school. To me he’s the 6′5″ Paul Pierce. Other mocks have him higher right now, but I expect that on draft night he’ll slide in between 5 and 8. (Previously: Jordan Hill)

8. New York - Ty Lawson, G, UNC: I almost pulled the trigger on Lawson in the previous version. Now that I think Nate Robinson most likely will be signed-and-traded this July, Lawson becomes a better fit. He used to be just a fly-down-the floor guard (and frankly, there is something to be said for that) but his screen roll game has really evolved. I expect him to shine in workouts. He may be this year’s Westbrook–an already well-regarded player who vaults up the board based on superior workouts. Oh, and I really hope Walsh can find a 2nd round pick this year. This draft has some potentially very useful role players. (Previously: James Harden)

9. Toronto - Stephen Curry, G, Davidson: Is it possible to NOT love Steph Curry’s game? He fits Toronto like a glove, even down to his weaknesses (i.e., lateral quickness, overall athleticism, defense). He’s also the right kid to play outside the lower 48. This is a makes-too-much-sense-NOT-to-happen move if Curry is available. (Previously: Stephen Curry)

10. Milwaukee - Dejaun Blair, PF/C, Pittsburgh: Blair’s rebounding and long arms may get him to the top ten. (Previously: Ty Lawson)

11. New Jersey - Demar DeRozan, SF, USC: I think DeRozan is the biggest gamble this draft. It’s just not clear if he’s really good at anything yet. Add to that, he may be leaving town one step ahead of the sheriff with allegations of payola hanging over Tim Floyd at USC. Having said that, I’d honestly be a bit surprised if someone doesn’t pull the trigger on him earlier. (Previously: Jeff Teague)

12. Charlotte - Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke: With Larry Brown making personnel decisions, there is simply no way to anticipate what he’ll do. What I can probably write down is “scrappy, hard-nosed defender with a high basketball IQ” and just wait to fill in the name. I like Henderson as a solid sixth man who plays both ends. (Previously: Gerald Henderson)

13. Indiana - Jrue Holiday, G, UCLA: Holiday was probably among the most shocked when Darren Collison return to UCLA for his senior season. That moved Holiday to SG, where he struggled playing limited minutes out of position for a team with a style that doesn’t exactly fit his strengths. I’m not an “everyone should play one year!” guy, but Holiday should go back to school for another year. He’d definitely move to PG this year and could vault himself into the top 5 of next year’s draft. He may yet do so in this draft based on workouts, but the new format doesn’t allow as many chances for teams to see players as in the past. As of this writing he hasn’t hired an agent, but everything I have read suggests that he’s in the draft to stay. (Previously: Earl Clark)

14. Phoenix - Johnny Flynn, PG, Syracuse: The rumor mill says that Phoenix likes him. We’ll take that as a baseline pick. (Previously: Johnny Flynn)

15. Detroit - Earl Clark, F, Louisville: I am not a fan of Clark’s offensive game, particularly shot selection, but he’s a good defender. (Previously: Wayne Ellington)

The Baseline:

1. Clippers. Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma. They’ll need to make room for him (so long, Chris Kaman?), but the Clips won’t pass him up.

2. Grizzlies. Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain. The Grizzlies might shop PG Mike Conley this summer in order to make Rubio their man—or they could move down.

3. Thunder. Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona. It will come down to Hasheem Thabeet or Hill with this pick, and Hill has the athleticism advantage.

4. Kings. Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut. The Kings may put together a package to shake Rubio from Memphis. If not, big is the way to go.

5. Wizards. Brandon Jennings, PG, United States. The Wizards could use a backup point guard or a big man, but they’ll probably trade this pick.

6. Timberwolves. Stephen Curry, G, Davidson. Many are assuming he’ll be there for the taking when the Knicks pick. Not so fast.

7. Warriors. Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis. In the second half of last season, Evans showed some promise as a point guard, though he’s probably not ready for that role just yet.

8. Knicks. DeMar DeRozan, SG, USC. DeRozan is still developing, but he is an excellent athlete, and Mike D’Antoni likes athletes.

9. Raptors. Chase Budinger, G/F, Arizona. His combination of shooting ability and athleticism sets him apart, and the Raptors are looking for wing players.

10. Bucks. Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina. He’s a tough, experienced point man who would be the ideal guy for coach Scott Skiles.

11. Nets. James Harden, SG, Arizona State. Harden will fit here because the Nets will, eventually, move Vince Carter.

12. Bobcats. Earl Clark, SF, Louisville. A 6-9 small forward who can handle the ball and be a playmaker—Clark is just Larry Brown’s type.

13. Pacers. Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke. By closing the season strong and showing off a nice jumper, Henderson laid to rest any doubt about his NBA ability.

14. Suns. Terrence Williams, SG, Louisville. His shooting in the NCAA Tournament was a big surprise and, considering his defensive talent, a big boost for his stock.

15. Pistons. James Johnson, PF, Wake Forest. He’s a bit of a 'tweener, and he needs polish, but a bench role in Detroit would help his development.