Know Your Newest Knick

Here's what I wrote about Jordan Hill, the 8th overall pick in this year's NBA Draft, back in March, before the NCAA Tournament: 

Arizona will only go as far as center/power forward Jordan Hill takes them. Sure, the Wildcats have small forward Chase Budinger and point guard Nic Wise to help pick up the offensive slack, but Jordan is the team's defensive presence and, as far as I can tell, its singular source of toughness. Hill, a 6-1o junior who averaged 18 points, 11 rebounds and about 2 blocks per game this season, knows how to finish around the basket and holds his ground defensively on the low post, which could give Utah's Australian center Luke Nevil, a 7-1 junior, all he can handle.

The Wildcats have a long history of stinking up the NCAA tournament, and a number of sports writers and commentators believe the wildly inconsistent Cats, who lost to UAB but also beat Kansas, Gonzaga and UCLA, didn't deserve to make this year's tournament, especially as a 12-seed. If Hill plays like he did against the Bruins on Valentine's Day (22 points, 13 rebounds and 2 blocks), however, he and his Arizona teammates might just silence a few critics and, in the process, bust up a bracket or two.

Hill's not Stephen Curry, but I do like his game. I have one question, though: does Hill's arrival spell the end to David Lee's days as a Knickerbocker? 

2009 Mock Draft II

I just returned from vacation. There is literally way too much NBA news to digest. Shaq to the Cavs seems a little late, and Crawford to the Hawks feels like a supremely bad idea. For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Celtics would even consider trading Rondo, if the various dubious reports are to be take seriously. Finally, there are rumors that Donnie Walsh is looking to acquire Darko Milicic from Memphis for Quentin Richardson, and, in another move, trying to pry away one of Minnesota's four first round picks, probably number 18 or 28, in exchange for some cash. With everything up in the air, I thought I'd take another crack at predicting tonight's NBA Draft. Here goes nothing. 

Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin.
Still set in stone. 

Memphis Grizzlies: Hasheem Thabeet. 
It's not who they want, but it's what they need. Unfortunately, Thabeet's not going to add much, at least not right away.  

Oklahoma City Thunder: Ricky Rubio. 
Sorry, Russell Westbrook. Make room for Ricky. 

Sacramento Kings: Tyreke Evans. 

The Kings really want Rubio, but they could end up with the steal of the draft. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: James Harden and Stephen Curry. 
By trading Randy Foye and Mike Miller to Washington, the Timberwolves will look to rebuild their backcourt. Harden and Curry are their guys.  

Golden State Warriors: Jordan Hill.  
This seems to be the growing consensus. A talented big man to complement the Warriors' numerous guards and wings.  

New York Knicks: Jrue Holliday.    
A reliable, if underwhelming pick.   

Toronto Raptors: Jonny Flynn. 
It seems they're in search of a point guard to help Jose Calderon carry the load.  

Milwaukee Bucks: DeMar DeRozan. 
The Bucks take a chance on the athletic DeRozan to replace the recently departed Richard Jefferson.  

New Jersey Nets: Gerald Henderson.

DeJuan Blair's knee and weight issues make the Nets look elsewhere. What they find is Henderson.    

Charlotte Bobcats: Terrence Williams.   
Versatile, and said to have a promise from Charlotte. Makes sense.   

Indiana Pacers: Ty Lawson. 
The Pacers will go with the best available player, even if it is a carbon copy of incumbent TJ Ford.

Phoenix Suns. James Johnson.

Quick, versatile big man who can play the 3 and the 4. Just one of the things Phoenix needs.

(UPDATE: Looks like SI's Ian Thomsen has an almost identical mock draft, which means I'm probably wrong. )

Mock Drafts

I haven't been paying too much attention to the Eastern and Western Conference finals, although I did manage to catch LeBron's shot as it unfolded, before heading out of town for the rest of the weekend. For the most part, I've been reading up on the likeliest of the most likely lottery picks. Ricky Rubio, it seems, is playing it a bit coy, telling people-- via his agent, Dan Fegan-- that he only wants to play in Los Angeles or, worse case scenario, Sacramento. Meanwhile, Blake Griffin remains a lock to go first overall. He'd have to measure under 6-5 to fall to No. 2. That he plays next year in a Clippers jersey, however, remains to be seen, as rumors out of Los Angeles have the Clippers' front office weighing whether or not to trade the pick. That's a tough call, either way. I'd so much rather Griffin and Chris Kaman on my roster than Zach Randolph, but I doubt very much there's a team out there willing to accept a trade for Randolph, his horrible attitude and his even worse contract. Griffin, if traded, would undoubtedly land the Clippers a much more attractive package. 

As for the Knicks, I see them taking either Stephen Curry, if he's still on the board, or North Carolina's Ty Lawson. I've heard murmurs of Walsh and D'Antoni warming up to USC's Demar DeRozan, but his 16 percent three-point percentage casts some serious doubts on Walsh's and D'Antoni's rumored budding man-crushes. Besides, they already have a better version of DeRozan on their roster. His name is Wilson Chandler.   

I hope to put together my own mock draft in the next couple of days. In the meantime, here are three--DraftExpress, Knickerblogger and The Baseline--that make sense to me, give or take a few players. 

DraftExpress:

1. Clippers: Blake Griffin
   
2. Grizzlie: Hasheem Thabeet
   
3. Thunder: James Harden
   
4. Kings: Ricky Rubio
   
5. Wizards: Jordan Hill
   
6. T'Wolves: Tyreke Evans
   
7. Warriors: Brandon Jennings
   
8. Knicks: Stephen Curry
   
9. Raptors: Demar DeRozan
   
10. Bucks: Johnny Flynn
    
11. Nets: DeJuan Blair
    
12. Bobcats: Gerald Henderson
    
13. Pacers: Jrue Holiday 
    
14. Suns: Earl Clark
    
15. Pistons: Austin Daye
    

Knickerblogger:

1. LA Clippers - Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma: If Mike Dunleavy’s recent declaration of undying love for Blake Griffin is true then he’ll probably trade players to clear room for his new beloved. If it’s not true then the #1 pick may represent a rare opportunity to clean up a roster that is a mess, possibly in one fell swoop. (Previously: Ricky Rubio)

2. Memphis - Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain: Choosing Rubio has its advantages, regardless of whether he wants to play in Memphis. His rights become an asset for the asset-starved Grizz. Even though Memphis should do this, no player in this draft generates more ambivalence for me than Rubio. The talent is evident, but there are lots of reasons it may not work out for the team that drafts him. (Previously: Demar DeRozan)

3. Oklahoma City - Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn: Thabeet may be a one-trick pony but his trick is precisely what OKC needs. He’s a defensive anchor, with a decent shot at becoming a more athletic Mutombo. The downside is that he will probably never be even an average offensive player. But, in this draft there’s something to be said for being fairly certain of a player’s “floor”. (Previously: Brandon Jennings)

4. Sacramento - Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy: Sactown will most likely take the best PG left on the board. I suspect Rubio would prefer Sactown over Memphis, and perhaps a deal can be struck. (Previously: Blake Griffin)

5. Washington - Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona: The Wiz is the team I think most likely to deal its pick. If they keep it they’ll be looking for depth that could help in a pinch, but with some upside. Hill is a lot like Chris Wilcox. (Previously: Hasheem Thabeet)

6. Minnesota - Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis: I think Minny opts for the highest upside player on the board regardless of position. It could be Evans, depending on workouts. It could also be Hill, Jennings, DeRozan, or Lawson. Almost literally nothing they do would surprise me, which I hope they interpret as a challenge. (Previously: Evans)

7. Golden State - James Harden, G, Arizona State: I’ve loved to watch this kid play since he was a junior in high school. To me he’s the 6′5″ Paul Pierce. Other mocks have him higher right now, but I expect that on draft night he’ll slide in between 5 and 8. (Previously: Jordan Hill)

8. New York - Ty Lawson, G, UNC: I almost pulled the trigger on Lawson in the previous version. Now that I think Nate Robinson most likely will be signed-and-traded this July, Lawson becomes a better fit. He used to be just a fly-down-the floor guard (and frankly, there is something to be said for that) but his screen roll game has really evolved. I expect him to shine in workouts. He may be this year’s Westbrook–an already well-regarded player who vaults up the board based on superior workouts. Oh, and I really hope Walsh can find a 2nd round pick this year. This draft has some potentially very useful role players. (Previously: James Harden)

9. Toronto - Stephen Curry, G, Davidson: Is it possible to NOT love Steph Curry’s game? He fits Toronto like a glove, even down to his weaknesses (i.e., lateral quickness, overall athleticism, defense). He’s also the right kid to play outside the lower 48. This is a makes-too-much-sense-NOT-to-happen move if Curry is available. (Previously: Stephen Curry)

10. Milwaukee - Dejaun Blair, PF/C, Pittsburgh: Blair’s rebounding and long arms may get him to the top ten. (Previously: Ty Lawson)

11. New Jersey - Demar DeRozan, SF, USC: I think DeRozan is the biggest gamble this draft. It’s just not clear if he’s really good at anything yet. Add to that, he may be leaving town one step ahead of the sheriff with allegations of payola hanging over Tim Floyd at USC. Having said that, I’d honestly be a bit surprised if someone doesn’t pull the trigger on him earlier. (Previously: Jeff Teague)

12. Charlotte - Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke: With Larry Brown making personnel decisions, there is simply no way to anticipate what he’ll do. What I can probably write down is “scrappy, hard-nosed defender with a high basketball IQ” and just wait to fill in the name. I like Henderson as a solid sixth man who plays both ends. (Previously: Gerald Henderson)

13. Indiana - Jrue Holiday, G, UCLA: Holiday was probably among the most shocked when Darren Collison return to UCLA for his senior season. That moved Holiday to SG, where he struggled playing limited minutes out of position for a team with a style that doesn’t exactly fit his strengths. I’m not an “everyone should play one year!” guy, but Holiday should go back to school for another year. He’d definitely move to PG this year and could vault himself into the top 5 of next year’s draft. He may yet do so in this draft based on workouts, but the new format doesn’t allow as many chances for teams to see players as in the past. As of this writing he hasn’t hired an agent, but everything I have read suggests that he’s in the draft to stay. (Previously: Earl Clark)

14. Phoenix - Johnny Flynn, PG, Syracuse: The rumor mill says that Phoenix likes him. We’ll take that as a baseline pick. (Previously: Johnny Flynn)

15. Detroit - Earl Clark, F, Louisville: I am not a fan of Clark’s offensive game, particularly shot selection, but he’s a good defender. (Previously: Wayne Ellington)

The Baseline:

1. Clippers. Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma. They’ll need to make room for him (so long, Chris Kaman?), but the Clips won’t pass him up.

2. Grizzlies. Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain. The Grizzlies might shop PG Mike Conley this summer in order to make Rubio their man—or they could move down.

3. Thunder. Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona. It will come down to Hasheem Thabeet or Hill with this pick, and Hill has the athleticism advantage.

4. Kings. Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut. The Kings may put together a package to shake Rubio from Memphis. If not, big is the way to go.

5. Wizards. Brandon Jennings, PG, United States. The Wizards could use a backup point guard or a big man, but they’ll probably trade this pick.

6. Timberwolves. Stephen Curry, G, Davidson. Many are assuming he’ll be there for the taking when the Knicks pick. Not so fast.

7. Warriors. Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis. In the second half of last season, Evans showed some promise as a point guard, though he’s probably not ready for that role just yet.

8. Knicks. DeMar DeRozan, SG, USC. DeRozan is still developing, but he is an excellent athlete, and Mike D’Antoni likes athletes.

9. Raptors. Chase Budinger, G/F, Arizona. His combination of shooting ability and athleticism sets him apart, and the Raptors are looking for wing players.

10. Bucks. Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina. He’s a tough, experienced point man who would be the ideal guy for coach Scott Skiles.

11. Nets. James Harden, SG, Arizona State. Harden will fit here because the Nets will, eventually, move Vince Carter.

12. Bobcats. Earl Clark, SF, Louisville. A 6-9 small forward who can handle the ball and be a playmaker—Clark is just Larry Brown’s type.

13. Pacers. Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke. By closing the season strong and showing off a nice jumper, Henderson laid to rest any doubt about his NBA ability.

14. Suns. Terrence Williams, SG, Louisville. His shooting in the NCAA Tournament was a big surprise and, considering his defensive talent, a big boost for his stock.

15. Pistons. James Johnson, PF, Wake Forest. He’s a bit of a 'tweener, and he needs polish, but a bench role in Detroit would help his development.

Ping-Pong Prayers

Later tonight, before the Lakers and Nuggets tipoff in the first game of the Western Conference Championship, the National Basketball Association will hold its annual draft lottery. The Knicks have a less-than-inspiring 2.8 percent chance of winning the first pick, which they will use to select, most likely, either Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio. "We have a chance, it's not a great chance but we'll see," Knicks president Donnie Walsh told the Daily News yesterday. 

This is where Saint Cayetano, the patron saint of gamblers, comes in. Cayetano is regarded as the intercessor of sporting men because, according to Catholic lore, people would bet him a rosary or votive candle that he wouldn't do something good for them. Cayetano usually delivered, even going so far as to give his vast family fortune to the needy, and, later, dedicate his life to the care of the sick. Good man, that Cayetano, although it's a bit unclear if he's responsible for any specific miracles, let alone the requisite three necessary for veneration. It seems, at least to this lapsed Catholic, that Cayetano's account is in arrears. He owes somebody a miracle, which is why I'll be praying to him--and the secular Saint Debusschere-- throughout the course of the day.   

Spanish Fly

According to various reports, Ricky Rubio, an 18-year-old point guard from Spain, has declared for the National Basketball Association's upcoming draft. Rubio, whose games is often compared to Pete Marovich, has been on the radar of hardcore basketball junkies for at least two years, when he first earned a starting spot--at 16!--for Joventut, one of the better teams in the best professional league in all of Europe. This summer, Rubio cemented his reputation as a big-time player, helping the Spanish National team win a silver medal in Beijing. 

Yadda, yadda, yadda. The kid's good, but the question is, can the Knicks get him? Not likely, although there are a number of ways we could, at least theoretically, hope to land him. We could, of course, win the draft lottery. Why not? Stranger things have happened. 

Realistically, though, there are a number of factors working in the Knicks' favor. First, because Joventut controls Rubio's contract, if an NBA team wants him, they're going to have to pay Joventut the $500,000 allowed under the NBA's collective bargaining agreement. Under the Dolans, the Knicks, although morally bankrupt, have always been flush with Cablevision cash, which means they wouldn't think twice about shelling out the money it would take just to draft Rubio. Second, and perhaps more important, the Knicks are only a handful of lottery-bound teams that actually, you know, need a point guard, and would welcome the chance to take Rubio over the likes of Blake Griffin or Hasheem Thabeet. 

I'm not alone in thinking this, either. Bethlehem Shoals, as is his wont, breaks down, the emerging Griffin-Rubio debate, vis-a-vis the performance of dominant guards in this year's playoffs:

Look at the teams with the league's worst records: Sacramento would love Rubio, but the Wizards and Clippers supposedly have stars recuperating to retake their point guard slot. Oklahoma City would run into the problem of what to do with explosive, promising Russell Westbrook. The T-Wolves could use him; the Grizzlies have been encouraged by the progress made by Mike Conley, Jr., but whatever. The Warriors would have to resign themselves to a small backcourt, and once and for all give up on Monta Ellis as their PG. Rubio to New York could save the NBA. At the same time, almost all those teams would benefit instantly from Griffin's presence -- and not have to deal with a buyout in this cash-sensitive climate.

From his lips to god's ears. Shoals goes on to say that, like a certain red wheelbarrow, so much depends on the playoffs. If the league's premier guards are all knocked out in the early rounds, he posits, then a general manager is more likely to take Griffin, a reliable, cheap frontcourt presence, over the promise of Rubio. Knicks fans, then, should be rooting against Derrick Rose and the Bulls, and, to a lesser extent, Rondo and the Celtics, if we hope to land Rubio in, what will most likely be, the mid-to-late lottery. As if we needed another excuse to hate Chicago and Boston. 

Even if the Knicks don't land Rubio, there remains a silver lining. With Rubio in the draft, the Knicks are now essentially guaranteed a guard who would thrive in D'Antoni's system (Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, Eric Maynor or Ty Lawson)-- which would almost make up for missing out on Rubio. Almost. 

1 + 99: WGASIG Presents FreeDarko

As I shoulder through the century mark, I'd like to announce that I will be moderating a kind of free-associative discussion/trash-talking session with the geniuses behind FreeDarko during tomorrow night's Knicks-Bulls game, at the Sugar Lounge, 147 Columbia Street, between Kane and Degraw, in Red Hook, Brooklyn. The festivities begin at 8:30 p.m. Audience participation is strongly encouraged. I want this to go down like a floor vote at the national convention of Bolsheviks. Or the NBA Draft.

Be there or be square.