2009 Mock Draft II

I just returned from vacation. There is literally way too much NBA news to digest. Shaq to the Cavs seems a little late, and Crawford to the Hawks feels like a supremely bad idea. For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Celtics would even consider trading Rondo, if the various dubious reports are to be take seriously. Finally, there are rumors that Donnie Walsh is looking to acquire Darko Milicic from Memphis for Quentin Richardson, and, in another move, trying to pry away one of Minnesota's four first round picks, probably number 18 or 28, in exchange for some cash. With everything up in the air, I thought I'd take another crack at predicting tonight's NBA Draft. Here goes nothing. 

Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin.
Still set in stone. 

Memphis Grizzlies: Hasheem Thabeet. 
It's not who they want, but it's what they need. Unfortunately, Thabeet's not going to add much, at least not right away.  

Oklahoma City Thunder: Ricky Rubio. 
Sorry, Russell Westbrook. Make room for Ricky. 

Sacramento Kings: Tyreke Evans. 

The Kings really want Rubio, but they could end up with the steal of the draft. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: James Harden and Stephen Curry. 
By trading Randy Foye and Mike Miller to Washington, the Timberwolves will look to rebuild their backcourt. Harden and Curry are their guys.  

Golden State Warriors: Jordan Hill.  
This seems to be the growing consensus. A talented big man to complement the Warriors' numerous guards and wings.  

New York Knicks: Jrue Holliday.    
A reliable, if underwhelming pick.   

Toronto Raptors: Jonny Flynn. 
It seems they're in search of a point guard to help Jose Calderon carry the load.  

Milwaukee Bucks: DeMar DeRozan. 
The Bucks take a chance on the athletic DeRozan to replace the recently departed Richard Jefferson.  

New Jersey Nets: Gerald Henderson.

DeJuan Blair's knee and weight issues make the Nets look elsewhere. What they find is Henderson.    

Charlotte Bobcats: Terrence Williams.   
Versatile, and said to have a promise from Charlotte. Makes sense.   

Indiana Pacers: Ty Lawson. 
The Pacers will go with the best available player, even if it is a carbon copy of incumbent TJ Ford.

Phoenix Suns. James Johnson.

Quick, versatile big man who can play the 3 and the 4. Just one of the things Phoenix needs.

(UPDATE: Looks like SI's Ian Thomsen has an almost identical mock draft, which means I'm probably wrong. )

2009 NBA Mock Draft

I hate to say this, but I'm not particularly excited about this year's draft. Blake Griffin is the consensus number one pick, almost by default. When I watch him, I see Michael Beasley, not Karl Malone, as some basketball pundits have claimed. I'm not sure that's the level of talent you'd want in return for the first overall pick. Still, there's almost no shot of him falling out of the top slot. After Griffin, though, it's a total crap shoot. This is, without question, a guard-heavy draft, with Ricky Rubio, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Jennings, Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson and Eric Maynor, among others, all up for grabs. All have potential, but can anyone really tell me, between, say, Holiday and Evans, which player will have a more immediate impact in the league, or a better career? I can't. The differences in these players are, as far as I can tell, marginal at best. For instance, would you take Rubio or Curry? Is one necessarily four-to-five picks better than the other? I'm not so sure. Fortunately, I don't have to decide; I can just throw up a mock draft with impunity.   

Here's how I think the upcoming lottery will unfold.

Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin. 

The Clips are pretty much locked in here. Griffin, though, will have to split time with Zach Randolph, whose outrageous contract--and horrible attitude-- pretty much preclude him from every being dealt to another team. Have fun with that, Blake. 

Memphis Grizzlies: Tyreke Evans.

Ricky Rubio says he doesn't want to play in Memphis. The Grizzlies, then, will be more than happy to pair Evans, who led the University of Memphis to the Sweet 16, with O.J. Mayo.  

Oklahoma City Thunder: Hasheem Thabeet.

Behind Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder averaged 97 points per game this year, while giving up 103. Thabeet's defensive presence, if nothing else, should help rectify this. 

Sacramento Kings: Ricky Rubio.

This is a win-win. Rubio gets to play in California, and the Kings get a talented point guard to fill some seats, and run with Kevin Martin.

Washington Wizards: Jordan Hill.

Washington will think long and hard about taking James Harden or Stephen Curry here, but will ultimately go with Hill because of his size and ability to grab some boards. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: James Harden.

They would love to get their hands on Thabeet, but will settle for Harden, a much better option at the 2 than Randy Foye, who's really better playing the point.

Golden State Warriors: DeMar DeRozan. 

The mad scientist strikes again, picking DeRozan, an athletic freak, over the more polished Stephen Curry.  

New York Knicks: Stephen Curry. 

Too good to be true? God, I hope not.  

Toronto Raptors: Gerald Henderson.

This might be a bit of a reach, but the Raptors really need a shooting guard. Henderson is the best one available. 

Milwaukee Bucks: Jrue Holiday. 

The defensive-minded Scott Skiles would be absolutely giddy about landing Holiday, a product of Ben Howland's UCLA system.

New Jersey Nets: DeJuan Blair. 

Let's face it: the Nets are soft down low. Blair will give them some much-needed toughness.

Charlotte Bobcats: Earl Clark. 

Larry Brown won't be able to resist Clark's versatility. 

Indiana Pacers: Brandon Jennings. 

At this point, the Pacers will go with the best available player, even if it is a point guard. 

Phoenix Suns. Ty Lawson.

I'm tempted to go with Jonny Flynn here, but, all things being equal, I think Steve Kerr goes with Lawson, the better defender.    

Mock Drafts

I haven't been paying too much attention to the Eastern and Western Conference finals, although I did manage to catch LeBron's shot as it unfolded, before heading out of town for the rest of the weekend. For the most part, I've been reading up on the likeliest of the most likely lottery picks. Ricky Rubio, it seems, is playing it a bit coy, telling people-- via his agent, Dan Fegan-- that he only wants to play in Los Angeles or, worse case scenario, Sacramento. Meanwhile, Blake Griffin remains a lock to go first overall. He'd have to measure under 6-5 to fall to No. 2. That he plays next year in a Clippers jersey, however, remains to be seen, as rumors out of Los Angeles have the Clippers' front office weighing whether or not to trade the pick. That's a tough call, either way. I'd so much rather Griffin and Chris Kaman on my roster than Zach Randolph, but I doubt very much there's a team out there willing to accept a trade for Randolph, his horrible attitude and his even worse contract. Griffin, if traded, would undoubtedly land the Clippers a much more attractive package. 

As for the Knicks, I see them taking either Stephen Curry, if he's still on the board, or North Carolina's Ty Lawson. I've heard murmurs of Walsh and D'Antoni warming up to USC's Demar DeRozan, but his 16 percent three-point percentage casts some serious doubts on Walsh's and D'Antoni's rumored budding man-crushes. Besides, they already have a better version of DeRozan on their roster. His name is Wilson Chandler.   

I hope to put together my own mock draft in the next couple of days. In the meantime, here are three--DraftExpress, Knickerblogger and The Baseline--that make sense to me, give or take a few players. 

DraftExpress:

1. Clippers: Blake Griffin
   
2. Grizzlie: Hasheem Thabeet
   
3. Thunder: James Harden
   
4. Kings: Ricky Rubio
   
5. Wizards: Jordan Hill
   
6. T'Wolves: Tyreke Evans
   
7. Warriors: Brandon Jennings
   
8. Knicks: Stephen Curry
   
9. Raptors: Demar DeRozan
   
10. Bucks: Johnny Flynn
    
11. Nets: DeJuan Blair
    
12. Bobcats: Gerald Henderson
    
13. Pacers: Jrue Holiday 
    
14. Suns: Earl Clark
    
15. Pistons: Austin Daye
    

Knickerblogger:

1. LA Clippers - Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma: If Mike Dunleavy’s recent declaration of undying love for Blake Griffin is true then he’ll probably trade players to clear room for his new beloved. If it’s not true then the #1 pick may represent a rare opportunity to clean up a roster that is a mess, possibly in one fell swoop. (Previously: Ricky Rubio)

2. Memphis - Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain: Choosing Rubio has its advantages, regardless of whether he wants to play in Memphis. His rights become an asset for the asset-starved Grizz. Even though Memphis should do this, no player in this draft generates more ambivalence for me than Rubio. The talent is evident, but there are lots of reasons it may not work out for the team that drafts him. (Previously: Demar DeRozan)

3. Oklahoma City - Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn: Thabeet may be a one-trick pony but his trick is precisely what OKC needs. He’s a defensive anchor, with a decent shot at becoming a more athletic Mutombo. The downside is that he will probably never be even an average offensive player. But, in this draft there’s something to be said for being fairly certain of a player’s “floor”. (Previously: Brandon Jennings)

4. Sacramento - Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy: Sactown will most likely take the best PG left on the board. I suspect Rubio would prefer Sactown over Memphis, and perhaps a deal can be struck. (Previously: Blake Griffin)

5. Washington - Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona: The Wiz is the team I think most likely to deal its pick. If they keep it they’ll be looking for depth that could help in a pinch, but with some upside. Hill is a lot like Chris Wilcox. (Previously: Hasheem Thabeet)

6. Minnesota - Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis: I think Minny opts for the highest upside player on the board regardless of position. It could be Evans, depending on workouts. It could also be Hill, Jennings, DeRozan, or Lawson. Almost literally nothing they do would surprise me, which I hope they interpret as a challenge. (Previously: Evans)

7. Golden State - James Harden, G, Arizona State: I’ve loved to watch this kid play since he was a junior in high school. To me he’s the 6′5″ Paul Pierce. Other mocks have him higher right now, but I expect that on draft night he’ll slide in between 5 and 8. (Previously: Jordan Hill)

8. New York - Ty Lawson, G, UNC: I almost pulled the trigger on Lawson in the previous version. Now that I think Nate Robinson most likely will be signed-and-traded this July, Lawson becomes a better fit. He used to be just a fly-down-the floor guard (and frankly, there is something to be said for that) but his screen roll game has really evolved. I expect him to shine in workouts. He may be this year’s Westbrook–an already well-regarded player who vaults up the board based on superior workouts. Oh, and I really hope Walsh can find a 2nd round pick this year. This draft has some potentially very useful role players. (Previously: James Harden)

9. Toronto - Stephen Curry, G, Davidson: Is it possible to NOT love Steph Curry’s game? He fits Toronto like a glove, even down to his weaknesses (i.e., lateral quickness, overall athleticism, defense). He’s also the right kid to play outside the lower 48. This is a makes-too-much-sense-NOT-to-happen move if Curry is available. (Previously: Stephen Curry)

10. Milwaukee - Dejaun Blair, PF/C, Pittsburgh: Blair’s rebounding and long arms may get him to the top ten. (Previously: Ty Lawson)

11. New Jersey - Demar DeRozan, SF, USC: I think DeRozan is the biggest gamble this draft. It’s just not clear if he’s really good at anything yet. Add to that, he may be leaving town one step ahead of the sheriff with allegations of payola hanging over Tim Floyd at USC. Having said that, I’d honestly be a bit surprised if someone doesn’t pull the trigger on him earlier. (Previously: Jeff Teague)

12. Charlotte - Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke: With Larry Brown making personnel decisions, there is simply no way to anticipate what he’ll do. What I can probably write down is “scrappy, hard-nosed defender with a high basketball IQ” and just wait to fill in the name. I like Henderson as a solid sixth man who plays both ends. (Previously: Gerald Henderson)

13. Indiana - Jrue Holiday, G, UCLA: Holiday was probably among the most shocked when Darren Collison return to UCLA for his senior season. That moved Holiday to SG, where he struggled playing limited minutes out of position for a team with a style that doesn’t exactly fit his strengths. I’m not an “everyone should play one year!” guy, but Holiday should go back to school for another year. He’d definitely move to PG this year and could vault himself into the top 5 of next year’s draft. He may yet do so in this draft based on workouts, but the new format doesn’t allow as many chances for teams to see players as in the past. As of this writing he hasn’t hired an agent, but everything I have read suggests that he’s in the draft to stay. (Previously: Earl Clark)

14. Phoenix - Johnny Flynn, PG, Syracuse: The rumor mill says that Phoenix likes him. We’ll take that as a baseline pick. (Previously: Johnny Flynn)

15. Detroit - Earl Clark, F, Louisville: I am not a fan of Clark’s offensive game, particularly shot selection, but he’s a good defender. (Previously: Wayne Ellington)

The Baseline:

1. Clippers. Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma. They’ll need to make room for him (so long, Chris Kaman?), but the Clips won’t pass him up.

2. Grizzlies. Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain. The Grizzlies might shop PG Mike Conley this summer in order to make Rubio their man—or they could move down.

3. Thunder. Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona. It will come down to Hasheem Thabeet or Hill with this pick, and Hill has the athleticism advantage.

4. Kings. Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut. The Kings may put together a package to shake Rubio from Memphis. If not, big is the way to go.

5. Wizards. Brandon Jennings, PG, United States. The Wizards could use a backup point guard or a big man, but they’ll probably trade this pick.

6. Timberwolves. Stephen Curry, G, Davidson. Many are assuming he’ll be there for the taking when the Knicks pick. Not so fast.

7. Warriors. Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis. In the second half of last season, Evans showed some promise as a point guard, though he’s probably not ready for that role just yet.

8. Knicks. DeMar DeRozan, SG, USC. DeRozan is still developing, but he is an excellent athlete, and Mike D’Antoni likes athletes.

9. Raptors. Chase Budinger, G/F, Arizona. His combination of shooting ability and athleticism sets him apart, and the Raptors are looking for wing players.

10. Bucks. Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina. He’s a tough, experienced point man who would be the ideal guy for coach Scott Skiles.

11. Nets. James Harden, SG, Arizona State. Harden will fit here because the Nets will, eventually, move Vince Carter.

12. Bobcats. Earl Clark, SF, Louisville. A 6-9 small forward who can handle the ball and be a playmaker—Clark is just Larry Brown’s type.

13. Pacers. Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke. By closing the season strong and showing off a nice jumper, Henderson laid to rest any doubt about his NBA ability.

14. Suns. Terrence Williams, SG, Louisville. His shooting in the NCAA Tournament was a big surprise and, considering his defensive talent, a big boost for his stock.

15. Pistons. James Johnson, PF, Wake Forest. He’s a bit of a 'tweener, and he needs polish, but a bench role in Detroit would help his development.