Thursday, June 18, 2009

2009 NBA Mock Draft

I hate to say this, but I'm not particularly excited about this year's draft. Blake Griffin is the consensus number one pick, almost by default. When I watch him, I see Michael Beasley, not Karl Malone, as some basketball pundits have claimed. I'm not sure that's the level of talent you'd want in return for the first overall pick. Still, there's almost no shot of him falling out of the top slot. After Griffin, though, it's a total crap shoot. This is, without question, a guard-heavy draft, with Ricky Rubio, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Jennings, Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson and Eric Maynor, among others, all up for grabs. All have potential, but can anyone really tell me, between, say, Holiday and Evans, which player will have a more immediate impact in the league, or a better career? I can't. The differences in these players are, as far as I can tell, marginal at best. For instance, would you take Rubio or Curry? Is one necessarily four-to-five picks better than the other? I'm not so sure. Fortunately, I don't have to decide; I can just throw up a mock draft with impunity.   

Here's how I think the upcoming lottery will unfold.

Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin. 
The Clips are pretty much locked in here. Griffin, though, will have to split time with Zach Randolph, whose outrageous contract--and horrible attitude-- pretty much preclude him from every being dealt to another team. Have fun with that, Blake. 

Memphis Grizzlies: Tyreke Evans.
Ricky Rubio says he doesn't want to play in Memphis. The Grizzlies, then, will be more than happy to pair Evans, who led the University of Memphis to the Sweet 16, with O.J. Mayo.  

Oklahoma City Thunder: Hasheem Thabeet.
Behind Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder averaged 97 points per game this year, while giving up 103. Thabeet's defensive presence, if nothing else, should help rectify this. 

Sacramento Kings: Ricky Rubio.
This is a win-win. Rubio gets to play in California, and the Kings get a talented point guard to fill some seats, and run with Kevin Martin.

Washington Wizards: Jordan Hill.
Washington will think long and hard about taking James Harden or Stephen Curry here, but will ultimately go with Hill because of his size and ability to grab some boards. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: James Harden.
They would love to get their hands on Thabeet, but will settle for Harden, a much better option at the 2 than Randy Foye, who's really better playing the point.

Golden State Warriors: DeMar DeRozan. 
The mad scientist strikes again, picking DeRozan, an athletic freak, over the more polished Stephen Curry.  

New York Knicks: Stephen Curry. 
Too good to be true? God, I hope not.  

Toronto Raptors: Gerald Henderson.
This might be a bit of a reach, but the Raptors really need a shooting guard. Henderson is the best one available. 

Milwaukee Bucks: Jrue Holiday. 
The defensive-minded Scott Skiles would be absolutely giddy about landing Holiday, a product of Ben Howland's UCLA system.

New Jersey Nets: DeJuan Blair. 
Let's face it: the Nets are soft down low. Blair will give them some much-needed toughness.

Charlotte Bobcats: Earl Clark. 
Larry Brown won't be able to resist Clark's versatility. 

Indiana Pacers: Brandon Jennings. 
At this point, the Pacers will go with the best available player, even if it is a point guard. 

Phoenix Suns. Ty Lawson.
I'm tempted to go with Jonny Flynn here, but, all things being equal, I think Steve Kerr goes with Lawson, the better defender.    

1 comments:

JMW said...

I don't know about Griffin. I always wonder about under-sized guys who have to play in the paint. At least Beasley has more "swinger" in him.

I like Curry, but I'm still biased toward guys who played in U.S. college, even after all the evidence for international talent. I know nothing about Rubio but his name.

I think Tyreke Evans, five years from now, will be by far the class of this class.