One Shinning Moment

An insipid, fitting end to a pretty uninspiring 2009 tournament. 

When Pitt Really Lost

Don't get me wrong: Scottie Reynolds' runner was impressive, and one of the most exciting moments of this year's tournament. Still, you'd have to go back to just about three minutes to see when Pitt really lost the game. Up four, with just under three minutes to play, Pitt's Levance Fields passed the ball to teammate Jermaine Dixon to avoid Villanova's heavy--and, at this late point in the game, desperate--full-court press. Dixon then dribbled across the half-court line, into two 'Nova players, before inexplicably picking up his dribble. With nowhere to go, Dixon, of course, turned it over. As if this weren't bad enough, Dixon then compounded his mistake with a boneheaded foul against Dwayne Anderson, who easily converted the bucket and free throw to pull 'Nova within one point, changing the complexity of the game. Dixon's two poor decision's opened the door for 'Nova's charge and, more damningly, Reynolds' late-game heroics.  

Pre-and-Postseason Prescience

To say the least: 

Like Seth Davis, I'm really high on Michigan State. Under Tom Izzo, the Spartans are always a tough out, and sophomore Kalin Lucas is one of the quickest guards in the country off the dribble. Maybe even faster than Ty Lawson. Maybe. Look for the Spartans to challenge Purdue for the Big Ten Championship and, later, make it to at least the Elite Eight.

All that and more, here and here. 

Like Attracts Like

Tonight's game between the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils and the third-seeded Villanova Wildcats should be a good one. Maybe even a classic. The two teams love to run, and aren't afraid to throw up a three when the spirit moves them. Duke and 'Nova are also mirror images of one another defensively, playing a tough brand of man-to-man, allowing only 90.9 and 90.8 points per 100 possessions, respectively. The two teams are so much alike, some people have even gone so far to call Villanova the "Catholic Duke," which is taking things a little too far, and an insult to James II, the real Catholic Duke, maybe the greatest of them all. But I digress. Here are three reasons to like the Blue Devils, followed by two solid reasons to get behind the Cats, Duke's doppelganger of the hardwood. 

1. Gerald Henderson: Is there a more impressive athlete in the tournament? You'd be hard-pressed to find one. In fact, fuck it, I'm going to say it, if you'll pardon the hyperbole: Henderson, who almost went to Villanova, is the best pure talent to play at Duke since Grant Hill. Seriously. The 6-4 guard scored 24 points against the Texas Longhorns in the round of 32, and is a threat to take over a game at any given moment. He's going to make 'Nova's backcourt earn their money tonight. 
2. Elliot Williams: A lot of people are pointing to Kyle Singler as the key to a Duke victory. I, however, think the play of Williams, particularly his perimeter defense, will play a significant part in whether the Blue Devils advance or go home. Since he joined the starting five, Duke is 10-1, their only loss coming at the hands of North Carolina. He might not be the star of the team, but he does make them better when he's on the court. What else can you ask?
3. Coach K:  Love him or hate him, Mike Krzyzewski can coach. Although he's gone a bit sour in recent years, he seems to have been rejuvenated from the experience of coaching Team USA to an Olympic gold medal. Like any good coach, he's getting the most out of his team, which always come to play, and the recent ACC championship has put the swagger back in his and his team's game. 

Meanwhile, 'Nova fans have almost as many reasons to be excited:

1. Jay Wright: The Villanova head coach has a recording of "One Shinning Moment," the NCAA tournament's official theme song, rigged to the door of his office so it plays every time a visitor opens the door, according to Sports Illustrated. The man wants a national championship like Hillary Clinton wanted the White House (h/t N.T.). His defensive schemes, in-game adjustments and unadulterated desire to win rival those of Coach K. 
   
2. Dante Cunningham: Villanova's best chances of winning, I think, rest in the long arms of Cunningham, one of the nation's top interior players. This season, he led the Wildcats with 16 points and 7 rebounds a game. I figure most of tonight's game will take place on the perimeter, but the difference might just come down to Cunningham's ability to score points in the paint and, conversely, stop Kyle Singler from getting his. 

God, this is going to be a good one. I'm pulling for 'Nova, but I have no idea how it's going to turn out. 

Eeny, Meeny, Miny, Mo

The No. 2 Memphis Tigers take on the third-seeded Missouri Tigers tonight in what is bound to be an exciting and exhausting game. Here are two reasons to back Memphis.

1. "The Memphis Attack": Predicated on guard play, Memphis’s offensive philosophy, a variation on the Dribble Drive Motion, is to get to the basket as many times as there are possessions. Their plan of attack is simple and effective: attack the rim and either finish at the hoop, or dish the ball to someone who can score either on the low block or beyond the arc. It’s organized chaos, really, and very difficult to defend, even for outstanding defensive teams like Missouri. 
   
2. Tyreke Evans: The starting freshman guard is charged with making this high-octane offense go, and he seems to be doing a pretty good job of it. Since taking over at the point, Memphis is 27-0. Could be a just a coincidence or a product of the start of conference play (Ed. Note: Memphis conference isn’t very good). But 27 straight wins is nothing to sneeze out. If Evans, who’s looked a little shaky over the first two rounds of the tournament, can hold on to the ball, Memphis should be in pretty good shape. 
   

Of course, Missouri came to play too. Here are three reasons to be excited about Mizzou.

1. “Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball”: Based on Nolan Richardson’s “40 Minutes of Hell,” Mizzou’s answer to Memphis’s motion offense is to counter with a balls-to-the-wall, full-court pressure defense. Quite simply, the Tigers attack, attack, attack on the defensive end, which, understandably, causes all sorts of problems for the opposition. They never let up, essentially running their opponents into the ground. Tonight’s game is going to be a battle of attrition. Whichever team’s left standing at the buzzer wins. 
   
2. Leo Lyons: Although he’s 6-9, he possesses the skill set of a point guard. This doesn’t mean he plays small; he can handle the ball and create his own shot from anywhere on the court. He can play inside or outside, he can block shots, and is almost always going to get to the glass. I expect him to stick Evans at several points tonight. Lyons might be able to rattle the young freshman just enough for Mizzou to pull off the upset. 
   
3. DeMarre Carroll: a 6-8, 225-pound senior, Carroll averaged close to 17 points and seven rebounds a game this year. He’s also an important kog in Mizzou’s hell-on-wheels defense. Combined with Lyons, he could give Memphis's staring front line of Shawn Taggert and Robert Dozier all sorts of problems. 

One in Four

You know the drill. Here are four reasons why Pittsburgh, the top seed in their region, will take out the fourth-seeded Xavier Musketeers tonight in the regional semifinals.  Xavier's single beacon of light shines forth below.    

1. DeJuan Blair: An absolute force down low, Blair is one of the best rebounders and defenders in the country. He can score, too, averaging about 16 points a game to go with his 12 boards. The only way to stop him is to get him into foul trouble. Otherwise, he's almost unstoppable. 
   
2. Sam Young: If things aren't working for Blair, the Panthers usually look to Young, who can seemingly do a little of everything. He can hit the three, as he showed again and again and again against Oklahoma State in the second round. Like Blair, he can also bang down low. Young's a handful, and one of the best second options in the country. 
   
3. Levance Fields: Known simply as "the General," Fields, a stocky, Brooklyn-born point guard knows how to run Pitt's offense. He averages close to eight assists per game, and has an ungodly 4:1 assist/turnover ratio, one of the best ratios in the country. There is no other player in the country I would trust more with the ball late in the game. 
   
4. Pitt's D: I've mentioned how good Pitt is at the end other end of the floor, but there defense is nothing to laugh at either. Sure, there are, without question, better defenses in the country; statistically, Xavier's is more efficient and more likely to get a big stop than Pitt's. Still, Pitt is pretty damn good at defending the basket and cleaning up the glass. I like their chances of shutting down Xavier's slightly above-average, A-10-style offense.
   

So why should the Musketeers even show up? Easy. Sean Miller, their head coach.  Since 2004, when he took over Xavier's basketball program, the Musketeers have gone 117-45, reaching the NCAA tournament in four of Miller's first five seasons. In 2007, Miller, who first made a name for himself as a star point guard for Pitt in the late 80s, was two minutes away from knocking out mentor--and former Xavier coach-- Thad Matta's Ohio State team, which featured Greg Oden, before a few bad plays late and a couple of terrible calls cost the Musketeers an unexpected trip to the Sweet 16. Miller is one of the best strategists in college basketball. If any coach can figure out a way to beat Pitt, it's Miller.  

Five Against One

On the eve of the NCAA regional semifinals, I thought I'd preview the upcoming games. Instead of breaking down in detail each team's strengths and weaknesses, however, I decided to write up some crib notes, offering only as many reasons to like a particular team as their opponent's respective seed allows. The No. 1 UConn Huskies, for instance, take on the fifth-seeded Purdue Boilermakers tomorrow night, so here are five reasons to go with the Huskies. The singular reason to like Purdue follows. 

1. A.J. Price: Price, who's scored at least 20 points in three straight games, makes the Huskies's offense go. Since taking over the offense last month, after junior Jerome Dyson blew out his knee, Price has averaged about six assists per game, including 10 dimes in the sextuplet-overtime classic against Syracuse in the Big East Tournament, while the Huskies, as a team, have put up roughly 81 points per game. In their first and second round games, the Huskies scored 103 and 92 points, respectively, winning both games by an average of 41 points.  
2. Hasheem Thabeet: The seven-footer averaged about 14 points and 11 rebounds a game this season, and his 146 total blocks this season were second only to Mississippi State's Jarvaris Varnado. Thabeet fills the lane, and can take over a game. 
3. UConn's Defense: The Huskies have the third most efficient defense in the country, according to Ken Pomeroy's impressive rating system. Through their first two games, UConn held Chattanooga and Texas A&M to 47 and 66 points, respectively. 
4. Jim Calhoun: Although he's had a rough couple of weeks-- his press conference tirade, his hospitalization and the recent allegations of recruiting violations-- Calhoun is still one of the best coaches in college basketball, leading the Huskies to the Sweet 16 for the 12th time since he arrived in Stoors. After he missed the team's first round game against Chattanooga, the Huskies, to a man, swore they'd run through walls for their coach. Don't think for a second that Calhoun won't make his players live up to their word.    
5. Stanley Robinson: Since scoring six points in a 70-60 loss to Pitt, Robinson, who's had a largely forgettable three years at UConn, has suddenly put up 28, 24 and 12 in his last three games. He seems to have figured something out, and is now a viable third option for the Huskies. If he can keep it up, UConn will be tough to beat. 

Meanwhile, the Boilermakers will have their work cut out for them. From where I sit, Purdue's only chance of winning hinges on the performance of one player: Robbie Hummel. Sure, 6-10 forward JuJuan Johnson will have to contain Hasheem Thabeet down low for Purdue to stay in the game; but Hummel, who shoots just shy of 40 percent from beyond the arc, will have to go off if the Boilermakers have any real chance of upsetting the heavily favored Huskies. Hummel, a 6-9 forward, can play in the post and on the perimeter, which should give Jeff Adrian and Stanley Robinson all kinds of problems when they try to guard Hummel. He'll need to take full advantage of these potential mismatches, and score at least 20 for the Boilermakers to advance. 

(Ed. Note: I rolled two previous posts into one.)

Status Update

I have to admit, it’s kind of nice not having to watch college basketball for a few days. It gives me an opportunity to do a few things I’ve put off since Thursday afternoon, most notably work and sleep. 

The brief respite, though, also gives me a chance to evaluate my picks. How am I doing? Pretty well, actually. Last Monday, I picked 13 teams worth watching out for, predicting that eight of them would eventually make up the Elite Eight, and one would be your national champion. One week later, my list still looks respectable, if not wholly clairvoyant. 

Here are my eight remaining teams.

1. Louisville
   
2. Michigan State
   
3. Missouri
   
4. Memphis
   
5. Pitt
   
6. Villanova
   
7. North Carolina
   
8. Oklahoma
   

Obviously, Memphis and Missouri, who face off against one another Thursday night, can't both make the Elite Eight, but the other seven have a very good shot at filling out the bracket. Not too bad. Not particularly surprising either, given the team's respective national rankings heading into the tournament. But still pretty good. 

As for the five teams that didn’t make it to the Sweet 16, I only regret picking BYU, which was a total shot in the dark, and based almost exclusively on Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. I also thought they had a shot of upsetting a suspiciously soft UConn squad in the second round, if A&M hadn't gotten in the Cougars's way. Hence my exclusion of the Huskies from my original list. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Purdue knocks them off this weekend. If I could have one mulligan, I would have picked the Boilermakers instead of the Cougars. Hindsight is, of course, always 20/20.

I’m most surprised-- and upset-- that West Virginia didn’t win a single game. Statistically, they should have been a lock for the Sweet 16, if not the Elite Eight. I also thought Arizona State’s offense (re: Harden) was better than it showed in the first two rounds. Serves me right for backing a Pac-10 team. Texas could have (should have?) beaten Duke, but my selection of the Longhorns was, admittedly, a bit of reach, even if the Blue Devils fall to Villanova Thursday night. And VCU? Well, they broke my heart. I had high hopes for Maynor and the Rams.

The eventual national champion, though, is still on my list of eight remaining teams. I guarantee it. 

Pick Pitt at Your Peril

While North Carolina and UConn destroyed their first round opponents, Pitt is living up to its March reputation with an atrocious first half against 16-seed East Tennessee State. At the half, the Panthers are only up three, even with the Buccaneers shooting a woeful 24 percent from the field and seven percent from beyond the arc. Imagine if they were putting the ball in the bucket. Pitt would have already been blown out of the gym. Yes, it's still early, but this doesn't bode well for the Panthers's chances in the larger field of 64.

Byron Eaton Does What Eric Maynor Couldn't

Dear readers, the first great finish of the 2009 tournament. It's about time.



(Via, obviously, The Sporting Blog)

Maynor's Miss

A tough way to go out. I really thought he nailed it, and VCU was headed into the second round. Three more inches. Three lousy inches. Still, even though his 17-footer grazed off the front rim, Eric Maynor was the best player on the floor last night. He finished with 21 points, seven assists, six rebounds, a steal and only two turnovers in 39 minutes. Sure, he only shot about 33 percent from the field, but he was able to get to line, hitting 10 of 13 from the charity stripe. He also kept Darren Collison off balance all night and, once Collison picked up his fourth foul with just under 10 minutes left, I thought Maynor would take over. But freshman guard Jrue Holiday, the second best player on the court, scored six straight points for the Bruins, extending their lead to 11, which was just too much of a deficit for VCU to overcome.

Maynor and the Rams made one final push, though, and, with 11 seconds left, Maynor had a chance to win the game. He got through the Bruins's press. Pulled up. Collison stuck him. Maynor missed, then quietly buried his head in teammate Larry Sanders's chest, before finally walking off the court.

It was almost too painful to watch. 

Chalk

Before yesterday afternoon, I swear to God, I had never heard the expression "chalk" to describe a popular or heavily favored pick. I trust I'm alone in my abject ignorance. As is usually the case, though, when I learn a new word or come across a wonderfully inventive turn of phrase, I end up hearing or reading it everywhere. I've heard either "chalk," "all chalk," or "go chalk" about 25 times this afternoon, and, since I like to think of myself as the inquisitive and handsome type, I started researching its etymology. If you'll forgive my doltishness for a moment, here's a pretty cool explanation of the origins of my new favorite word. I'll assume it's accurate because 1.) I found it on the Internet and 2.) it seems likely. 

When [...] odds changes had to be relayed to the public on a chalkboard, oftentimes the name of the favorite horse would be obscured by all the chalk dust created by the multiple erasures. Some bettors would approach the window near post time, and find themselves unable to read the favorite's name clearly, just referring to that horse as 'chalk.' It became an acceptable way to wager on the favorite, and thus was the genesis of a term we now use on a daily basis.

Obviously, I need to start hanging around the track more. Or maybe reread some old William Kennedy and Damon Runyon stories.  Anyway, aside from A&M's and Maryland's "upsets" over BYU and Cal, respectively, this afternoon's games pretty much went according to chalk. (Ed. Note: Well played, handsome). Memphis blew a few tires but lived to tell the tale-- provided, of course, people still listen to John Calipari when he isn't complaining about something.

I expect tonight's games to be a little less, well, chalk.  

On a Limb

With the NCAA tournament bracket all set, I feel pretty bullish about which teams look like serious players and which ones look like they're in for an early exit. Although I have no idea, at least at this point, which team will eventually be crowned the national champ, I am fairly confident about which ones will make it to the Elite Eight.

With a nod to Grant Wahl, then, I've put together a list of 13 teams that I'm particularly excited about. I've based my list on two things: 1.) a team's defensive efficiency and 2.) my own rough analysis of a team's guard play, which, although far from objective or even reliable, is based primarily on a complicated algorithm of personal biases, uniform color and length, and an admittedly limited sample size of watched games. Scoff if you must, but this formula has won me some money in the past and, back in November, gave me the confidence to write this about Michigan State and Georgetown.

Like Seth Davis, I'm really high on Michigan State. Under Tom Izzo, the Spartans are always a tough out, and sophomore Kalin Lucas is one of the quickest guards in the country off the dribble. Maybe even faster than Ty Lawson. Maybe. Look for the Spartans to challenge Purdue for the Big Ten Championship and, later, make it to at least the Elite Eight.

I'd love to say the same for Georgetown, but I just don't see it happening. Coach John Thompson III lost Roy Hibbert to the NBA and Patrick Ewing, Jr. to, well, the ether, I guess. Even with three serviceable returning starters (DaJuan Summers, Jesse Sapp and Austin Freeman), I'm worried the Hoyas don't have the offensive weapons to put up much of a fight. Greg Monroe, sadly, is still a year away.

In that same post, I pointed to Louisville as a team that could challenge North Carolina for the title, and expressed doubts about UConn's and Duke's toughness, which still hold true. So there. I might not be Nate Silver, but I’m not Jim Cramer, either. My bona fides are, as they say, tight.

As SI's Luke Winn pointed out at the start of the year, only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Based on this list, then, I picked out 13 teams that fulfill Winn's maxim and play to my individual biases and personal voodoo. 

I plan on writing up some more detailed scouting reports about each of these 13 teams throughout the rest of the week. Until then, here’s my list of 13 teams worth watching out for. Eight of them will make up the Elite Eight, and one will be your eventual national champion. There's my predictions, and here’s my list. Take them for what they’re worth.

1. Louisville
2. West Virginia
   
3. Michigan State
   
4. BYU
5. Missouri
6. Memphis
7. Pitt
   
8. VCU
9. Villanova
10. Texas
11. North Carolina
12. Arizona State
13. Oklahoma

If you'd like to offer your own list of 13, please send them my way. We can then pick apart one another's lists. After all, this is the most wonderful time of the year. It really should be spent talking copious amounts of shit with your nears and dears.