On a Limb

With the NCAA tournament bracket all set, I feel pretty bullish about which teams look like serious players and which ones look like they're in for an early exit. Although I have no idea, at least at this point, which team will eventually be crowned the national champ, I am fairly confident about which ones will make it to the Elite Eight.

With a nod to Grant Wahl, then, I've put together a list of 13 teams that I'm particularly excited about. I've based my list on two things: 1.) a team's defensive efficiency and 2.) my own rough analysis of a team's guard play, which, although far from objective or even reliable, is based primarily on a complicated algorithm of personal biases, uniform color and length, and an admittedly limited sample size of watched games. Scoff if you must, but this formula has won me some money in the past and, back in November, gave me the confidence to write this about Michigan State and Georgetown.

Like Seth Davis, I'm really high on Michigan State. Under Tom Izzo, the Spartans are always a tough out, and sophomore Kalin Lucas is one of the quickest guards in the country off the dribble. Maybe even faster than Ty Lawson. Maybe. Look for the Spartans to challenge Purdue for the Big Ten Championship and, later, make it to at least the Elite Eight.

I'd love to say the same for Georgetown, but I just don't see it happening. Coach John Thompson III lost Roy Hibbert to the NBA and Patrick Ewing, Jr. to, well, the ether, I guess. Even with three serviceable returning starters (DaJuan Summers, Jesse Sapp and Austin Freeman), I'm worried the Hoyas don't have the offensive weapons to put up much of a fight. Greg Monroe, sadly, is still a year away.

In that same post, I pointed to Louisville as a team that could challenge North Carolina for the title, and expressed doubts about UConn's and Duke's toughness, which still hold true. So there. I might not be Nate Silver, but I’m not Jim Cramer, either. My bona fides are, as they say, tight.

As SI's Luke Winn pointed out at the start of the year, only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Based on this list, then, I picked out 13 teams that fulfill Winn's maxim and play to my individual biases and personal voodoo. 

I plan on writing up some more detailed scouting reports about each of these 13 teams throughout the rest of the week. Until then, here’s my list of 13 teams worth watching out for. Eight of them will make up the Elite Eight, and one will be your eventual national champion. There's my predictions, and here’s my list. Take them for what they’re worth.

1. Louisville
2. West Virginia
   
3. Michigan State
   
4. BYU
5. Missouri
6. Memphis
7. Pitt
   
8. VCU
9. Villanova
10. Texas
11. North Carolina
12. Arizona State
13. Oklahoma

If you'd like to offer your own list of 13, please send them my way. We can then pick apart one another's lists. After all, this is the most wonderful time of the year. It really should be spent talking copious amounts of shit with your nears and dears. 

Truth Be Told: The Legend of Danny Granger

I've mentioned briefly about how much I love me some Danny Granger. Kid does something for me. His game, like Brandon Roy's, is impeccable and, to co-opt a phrase, fierce-terrible. He's a total gamer, and I would welcome him on the Knicks in a second. No surprise there. 

I first saw Granger play in 2005, when he was a senior at New Mexico. His Lobos were playing Utah, which featured consensus Naismith Award winner and presumptive number one pick Andrew Bogut, who was in the middle of an impressive sophomore year in which he logged 26 double-doubles. Granger, though, give the big man fits all night long and, according to the announcers, had his way against the Aussie throughout Bogut’s two-year collegiate career.

I remember liking Granger’s game but not giving him much thought at that time. I never imagined he’d have much impact in the NBA. More of a defensive guy, I thought, than a true offensive threat. (Full disclosure: I was more excited about sleeper picks Joey Graham and Hakim Warrick, who were selected 16th and 19th, respectively, in the NBA Draft later that spring.)  Donnie Walsh, though, as the then-general manager of the Pacers, grabbed up Granger with the 17th pick, and, in the three seasons since, Granger has become one of the most talented young players in the league, averaging 25 points a night.

How good is he? I’m going to go out on a limb and say he could one day be as good as Paul Pierce. Seriously. I'm not kidding. Granger's just that talented. 

To wit: In his last three games, Granger has put up 35, 36 and, last night against Phoenix, a cool 37 points, including this ridiculous three at the buzzer to steal the game from the Suns, via NBA Fanhouse. 

Welcome to Danny Granger's coming-out party. You've arrived just in time.

(Via NBA Fanhouse)

Doting the I's and Crossing the T, T, T, and T

All this talk about Torre's ugly divorce from the Yankees is giving me a headache. I can't make much sense of it, no matter how hard I try. Who's right? Torre or Cashman? Whose side should we take? It's impossible to know for sure, kind of like trying to choose which parent to back in a custody battle. Or so I've been told.   

I need some good news out of Yankees land. And fast. Fortunately, Andy Pettitte is more than happy to lend a hand.  The veteran lefty is reportedly coming back to the Bronx one last time in a deal that is expected to be announced later this afternoon. Pettitte's return gives the Yankees a formidable staring rotation of CC Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain and Pettitte, with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Al Aceves waiting in the wings for the occasional spot start, or if someone goes down with an injury. I'm going to go out on a limb here and call this the best rotation, 1-5, the Yankees have featured since 1999.

Copa N.Y.C.

Believe it or not, in about two weeks, New York City will host a 16-team world soccer tournament. Copa N.Y.C., a sort of mini-World Cup, is made up of national teams drawn from the Metropolitan area's diverse cultural and ethnic communities. Each team, according to Copa N.Y.C.'s website, consists of a team president, coaches, and 25 players who can at least claim some heritage to their country they're representing. 

The 16 teams-- the United States, England, Ireland, France, Ghana, Korea, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Greece, Trinidad & Tobago, Cyprus, Albania, Liberia, Jamaica and Ecuador-- have been split into four groups. The top two finishers from each group advance to the next round. For those scoring at home, the United Sates is in Group C with Cyprus, Argentina and Liberia. First round games are 50 minutes long, while the semifinals, quarterfinals and finals are all 90 minutes. 

The first round kicks off July 25 at Flushing Meadows-Corona Park in Queens. Semifinals and finals are scheduled for the following week at the Metropolitan Oval in Maspeth, also in Queens. This should be fun. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Ghana comes out of Group B, and wins it all.