Big Bats, Bigger Stage

Since the sixth inning of the Yankees’ regular season game against the Tampa Rays, when Alex Rodriguez hit two home runs and drove in 7 RBI to bring his season total to 30 home runs and 100 RBI, respectively, I’ve been texting my friends every time A-Rod hits one out or drives in another run. It’s starting to get expensive. 

So far in the postseason, A-Rod has five homers and 11 RBI. With three more hits last night, including a monster home run into the left field bleachers, Rodriguez is now batting .407 in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

The man is on fire.

Believe it or not, though, A-Rod is, arguably, only the second best player of the 2009 postseason. That honor might just go to Ryan Howard, who’s driven in an amazing 14 in eight games, more RBI than he had in 17 playoff games over the past two years. Although he’s only homered twice, compared to A-Rod’s five, Howard does have four doubles and triple, while batting a cool .379, with seven runs scored.

This after a regular season in which he launched 45 home runs, drove in 141, while batting .279, his highest average since 2006, when he hit .313 on way to picking up the National League Most Valuable Player award.

Both Rodriguez and Howard are putting on a display, matching Lou Gehrig’s postseason record of driving in at least one RBI in eight straight playoff games. Not too shabby, that. 

If the Yankees meet the Phillies in the World Series, a match up that suddenly seems inevitable, Major League Baseball will get to showcase, on its biggest stage, two of the sports biggest-- and most prolific-- sluggers.

Play ball. 

Mike Blowers Sees All

Before each game, the radio announcers for the Seattle Mariners pick a player they think will have a good game. A somewhat silly, but ultimately harmless pregame ritual. On Sunday, prior to the first pitch of the Mariners-Blue Jays game, color guy Mike Blowers, who played for the Mariners for four seasons, from 1992 to 1995, not only picked rookie Matt Tuiasosopo, he predicted Tuiasosopo would homer to left field in the third inning, during his second at bat, on a 3-1 fastball. Harmless fun, right? Well, guess what Tuiasosopo did? He hit a 3-1 fastball into the left field bleachers in the third inning, during his second at bat. 

Check out Blowers' pregame prediction and his partner's amazing in-game play-by-play here. Seriously, with 9 games left in their season, Mike Blowers is the only thing the Mariners have left going for them. 

(Via)

Wise Words From the Captain

“It’s a bump in the road, but it happens. You just have to work your way through it. If we win, we'll be where we want to be. We’re not chasing anybody.”

So true.

Damn Braves

I’d like to thank the good lord for making me a Yankees fan. If I had to root for the Braves, I’d be an ornery, frustrated bastard. The Braves, winners of seven straight, have run hot and cold all season. They started the year 33-40, losing some pretty brutal games in the season’s first-half, before recovering with an impressive 44-28 run. This season alone, they’ve had four separate four-game losing streaks and two five-game losing streaks to go along with one four-game winning streak and three five-game winning streaks.

They are maddeningly inconsistent.

Take, for instance, their recent seven-game winning streak, extended last night with a come-from-behind victory over the hapless Mets. The recent streak sounds pretty good, particularly down the stretch in a pennant race. Impressive, at least, until you realize the Braves previously dropped six of seven immediately before their current wining streak. 6 down; 7 up. Nautically speaking, there is little difference between the Braves and an ocean buoy. (Ed. Note: Thanks, Bob Sullivan.) 

This morning, the Braves find themselves a season-high 10 games over .500, 4.5 games behind the Colorado Rockies for the Wild Card, with 16 games to play. If the Rockies go 7-8 over their final 15 games, the Braves would have to go 12-4 just to force a tie. Mathematically, the Braves are still in it. If I were a betting man, though, I’d sit this one out, preseason predictions be damned.

IPK

Two seasons ago, when the Minnesota Twins were shopping Johan Santana, the team’s front office reportedly asked Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman for Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. For many fans, this was, in the parlance of sports talk radio, a no-brainer. Cashman, though, took his time making his decision. Why give up, Cashman reasoned, a serviceable outfielder and two promising young arms, especially when Santana’s contract was about to expire? Cashman figured he’d end up paying for Santana twice, first with a package of young, cost-controlled talent and, later, with a lengthy, multi-million-dollar contract. Cashman, to the dismay of many, passed, and Santana was shipped to the Mets for, it must be noted, a lesser package.

At first, Cashman’s decision didn’t look too good. Cabrera, predictably so, regressed. Hughes stunk. And Kennedy, a soft tossing, finesse pitcher, got rocked to the tune of an 8.17 ERA and a 1.916 WHIP. Even worse, he didn't care. The Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in 12 years, and New Yorkers, true to form, spent most of the season ripping Cashman for his decision not to go after Santana.

Cashman, though, rebounded in the winter, signing CC Sabathia, which helped solidify the starting rotation. (The signing of A.J. Burnett and the resigning of Andy Pettitte helped a great deal, too). Meanwhile, two of the players Cashman refused to part with rebounded from a disastrous season. Mellky, pushed by the addition of Brett Gardner, is playing a serviceable outfiled, and Hughes has been a revelation since moving to the 8th inning.

But what about the third, Ian Patrick Kennedy?

After spending most of the second half of the 2008 season in Scranton, Kennedy was sent to play in the Puerto Rican Winter League, where he posted a league-low 1.56 ERA, seemingly rediscovering the better-than-average control that inspired the Yankees to select him in the first round of the 2006 MLB Draft. By the middle of Spring Training, Kennedy, still only 24, had regained the respect of his manager, and was back in the team’s plans for the future.

A few weeks later, though, Kennedy, pitching well in the minors, left a game with numbness in the middle finger of his right hand, which was diagnosed a vasospasm in his right middle finger. Doctors later discovered an aneurysm in an artery near his right shoulder. His season—and, quite possibly, his career—was thought to be over.

But Kennedy fought back, working his way back to professional baseball. Last night, he pitched three hitless innings in his first Triple-A start since his surgery in May. Kennedy struck out the side in the first inning (Ed. Note: the Durham Bulls made contact on one of his first 15 pitches) and struck out two in the second. He racked up his sixth and final strikeout in the third, sandwiched between a flyout and groundout. After 50 very good pitches, Kennedy’s night was through.

“Everything felt good,” Kennedy said. “I got ahead of guys. My fastball command was better than in my first [rehab] outing. I felt back to normal again, and it’s much more comfortable pitching at that adrenalin rush rather than like my first outing when I couldn’t control it.”

This could be a big boost for the Yankees next season, as Kennedy still projects as a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter. Even if he doesn't crack the rotation, though, it's nice to see the kid pitching again. 

Pittsburgh Pirates: 17 Years of Suck

Yesterday, while the Yankees were busy putting a stranglehold on the American League East, the Pittsburgh Pirates lost to the Chicago Cubs, ensuring a 17th consecutive losing season, the worst such mark in all of professional sports. All of four of them. I can’t say I’m necessarily surprised at the Pirates two-decades-long futility. Even their promotional gigs and Hot Stove reports are a joke. The Pirates are seemingly redefining the definition of bad. In this decade alone, they’ve lost at least 87 games a year, bottoming out (at least thus far) at 100 losses in 2001.

The last time the Bucs were good was in 1992, when Atlanta’s Francisco Cabrera singled off Stan Belinda to score David Justice and Sid Bream for the tying and winning runs, respectively, in Game 7 of the ALCS. To put that into perspective, 1992 was the same year Pearl Jam’s Ten and Radiohead’s Pablo Honey debuted. And Bill Clinton was still a month away from winning his first term as president. After the ALCS, the team went into a protracted rebuilding phase, letting Barry Bonds sign with the San Francisco Giants, among other questionable moves. They’ve yet to recover. Ron Cook, a sportswriter for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, sums it up nicely:

Here's one final depressing way to blow the Pirates' ignominious march to history into perspective: Kids who graduated from college this spring aren't old enough to remember when they had a winning team.

"His Principal Crime Is That He Cheered for the Boston Red Sox"

In his soon-to-be published memoir, True Compass, Senator Ted Kennedy writes about his first case as young Boston prosecutor. He was going after a man charged with downing 26 drinks while watching a Yankees-Red Sox doubleheader, who then crashed his car near Fenway Park. (Ed. Note: the defendant was not, in fact, a Kennedy, or a Doyle, for that matter.) Kennedy writes that he figured the case was a slam dunk. But the hometown jury acquitted the defendant minutes after the man's attorney argued his client's "principal crime is that he cheered for the Boston Red Sox." It's hard to argue with that. 

(Via the Daily News)

Old Reliable

At no point last night, during Andy Pettitte’s masterful first 6 innings, did I think he would actually pitch a perfect game. That’s just not the type of pitcher he is, at least historically. Attacking hitters with a below-average fastball and a heavy arsenal of curve balls, cutters and changeups, Pettitte’s modus operandi on the mound is, for the most part, inducing contact. Although the Orioles weren’t exactly putting good swings on the ball, they did regularly put the ball into play. One of those hit balls, I figured, would eventually find a hole somewhere. I just didn’t think it would be through Jerry Hairston’s legs. Pitching a perfect game is hard. Just ask Mike Mussina. It’s no coincidence that only 18 pitchers in the history of the game have ever accomplished the feat.

This, of course, doesn’t take away from Pettitte’s dominant performance last night. Quite the opposite, in fact. Last night’s outing underlines how good he’s been this season, particularly in the second half. Since the All-Star Break, Pettitte has been dealing. Undefeated in his last 7 starts, he’s posting a 2.56 earned run average, and, in 59.2 innings since the break, he’s struck out 62 batters, while walking only 15. Good. Lord. His cutter is working like it’s 1996, which sets up his better-than-average off-speed stuff. As a result, batters just don’t look comfortable in the box against him. 

Projected as the team's fifth starter coming into the season, Pettitte has pitched better than I initially thought possible. He's solidified the Yankees’ rotation behind staff ace CC Sabathia and second-in-command A.J. Burnett, just as he did early in his career behind David Cone, David Wells and Roger Clemens, Pettitte's more celebrated--and talented--teammates. Outside of his rookie season, 1996, Pettitte has never been considered the staff ace. He’s always been more of a workhorse, an effective, mid-rotation innings-eater. Unlike his more touted teammates, Pettitte’s never going to light up a radar gun, strike out 20, or, as we witnessed last night, throw a perfect game. But he is a gamer, a fan favorite who's always ready to take the ball. And, more often than not, he's found a way to win. With last night’s victory, the 190th of his career, Pettitte moved ahead of Lefty Gomez into third place on the Yankees’ all-time win list. Only Whitey Ford (236) and Red Ruffing (231) remain ahead of him. He probably won’t catch either man, but third on the all-time list seems just about right for Pettitte, the Yankees' old reliable.

Can the Braves Win the Wild Card?

With the Yankees running away with the American League East, I’m now officially turning my attention to the Atlanta Braves and the National League Wild Card race. Before the season started, I somewhat foolishly predicted that the Braves would win the National League East, with the lowly and astonishingly bad Mets taking the Wild Card. Today, though, my money’s on the Braves taking the Wild Card.

Since the end of June, the Braves, believe it or not, own the second-best record in the National League, going 32 -18 over the past two months. They are now a season-high eight games over .500. But they still have their work cut out for them. As of this morning, with 38 games to play, the Braves sit a distant four games behind the streaking Colorado Rockies, winners of 53 of their last 79. They’d also have to overtake a strong, but shaky San Francisco Giants team, and hold off the stubborn Florida Marlins, reasonable but certainly not inevitable outcomes.

I think, then, that the Wild Card is going to come down to a two-team race between the Braves and the Rockies. If the Braves are going to pull this off, though, they’re going to have to rely on their starting pitching, because their hitting (Brian McCann’s recent outstanding contributions notwithstanding) leaves a lot to be desired. Atlanta’s rotation—Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami and rookie Tommy Hanson, with rehabbing Tim Hudson waiting in the wings—enjoys a healthy 3.54 ERA, the fourth lowest in the National League and more than half-a-run better than their Colorado counterparts (including the recently disabled Aaron Cook), which sports a somewhat pedestrian 4.14 ERA. 

At the same time, the Braves’ bullpen, anchored by closer Rafael Soriano and set-up man Mike Gonzalez, is, arguably, one of the most reliable in the National League. The Braves’ pitching staff, as whole, also possesses a formidable 7.5 strikeouts per 9 innings, compared to Colorado’s 6.9, a significant advantage that could help the Braves eek by the Rockies before the season ends.

What else is working in the Braves advantage? Not much, actually. Both Atlanta and Colorado have five series remaining against teams above .500, while Colorado enjoys only three more remaining home games (22) than the Braves (19). Pretty even, I’d say. Honestly, I have no idea whether or not the Braves can pull this out, but I’m looking forward to watching them give the Rockies, everybody’s flavor of the month, a run for their money.

Does Minka Kelly Want a Piece of Kate Hudson?

Speaking of fights, the Yankees seem to have an intramural catfight on their hands. And it’s between Minka Kelly and Kate Hudson, the respective girlfriends of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, at least according to Page Six, that ink-stained stalwart of reportorial integrity and, you know, classiness.

She made it past third base with Alex Rodriguez, but Kate Hudson isn’t getting a warm reception at the plate from Minka Kelly, longtime squeeze of Yankee captain Derek Jeter.

Like Afghanistan and Vietnam, the spat is reportedly a proxy fight in the long-rumored Cold War between Jeter and Rodriguez. It seems Kelly, who plays Lyla Garrity on "Friday Night Lights," is said to be less-than-pleased with Hudson’s desperate need for attention. While Jeter and Kelly prefer to keep a somewhat low profile, generally avoiding the press and keeping mum about their personal relationships, Rodriguez and Hudson, well, favor very public displays of affection.

"Friday Night Lights" hottie Kelly has been dating Jeter since last year. Since then, she's usually cheered him on from his private seats, kept a low profile and has rarely been photographed with him.

Then, high-profile Hudson arrived on the scene. She's been snapped smooching A-Rod in the stands, and recently switched from sitting in a private box to hanging in the family seats, cheering on the team with Yankee wives including Amber Sabathia and Karen Burnett.

Oh, no she didn’t. She did. I’m sure, though, that this little tiff is really much ado about nothing.

Our source added, "People are choosing sides."

People are choosing sides! People are choosing sides! This is exactly the kind of thing Obama warned us against.

Hudson, who also enthusiastically attended the Bombers' family picnic, seems to have gotten an early thumbs-up from veteran Yankee wives Michelle Damon and Laura Posada, whose stamp of approval is crucial, a source said.

I doubt very much that it's an either/or proposition, but I'd have to go with Ms. Kelly on this one. What about you? Team Minka or Team Hudson? 

Porcello's Jersey Defense Is Impregnable

Last night, during the second inning of the Red Sox-Tigers game, Tigers pitcher Rick Porcello, a product of New Jersey, drilled Kevin Youkilis with a high-80s fastball, just above Youk’s protective arm gear, reportedly in retaliation for Red Sox pitchers Brad Penny and Junichi Tazawa hitting Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera on consecutive nights. (Youkils was also hit on back-to-back nights). Youk, probably still sore about his recent poor performance in the outfield, took offense, and charged the mound. At first, Porcello didn’t want any part of the impending imbroglio, so he sidestepped the charging, puffy glob of sweat, until Youkilis, in a truly embarrassing act of frustration, threw his batting helmet at him. And this is where Porcello broke out the tried-and-true fighting style of the Garden State: avoid the initial onslaught, wrap up your opponent, toss him to the ground, and then wait for your friends to break things up before things get out of hand. I’ve used this technique many, many times. It got me through high school.

Although I wouldn't say that Youkilis got his ass kicked, I can't exactly say he comported himself heroically or even well during the dust up either. Porcello, on the other hand, did what he had to do to get through the melee. To the victor go the spoils. 

Here's last night's scuffle in all its glory.

Major-League Smokers And Other Missed Opportunities

Sports Illustrated just published online 25 Things We Miss in Baseball. The list, which includes prosaic things like stirrups, no pepper signs, and high leg kicks, is largely hit-or-miss. I would, though, gladly welcome back into the game Youppi, the Expos mascot of indeterminate origins, and bullpen carts. Ditto balanced schedules and, if I'm being honest, organ music.

More interesting, I think, is the magazine’s companion 1o Things We Don’t Miss in Baseball, particularly numbers 5 and 7—Terrible Uniforms and Players Smoking in the Dugout—which, as a fan, I desperately want to see put back into practice right away, like before the first pitch of tonight’s game. Seriously, who wouldn’t want to see, say, Roy Oswalt taking the mound in this? Or Jamie Moyer lighting up in between innings, like Harvey Haddix did throughout his 13-inning, near-perfect game on May 26, 1959? 

I'm serious. Who wouldn't get a kick out of seeing this every night?

 

Or this?

Hell yeah. In fact, the more I think about these two lists, the more I realize that if I were to put together a Venn Diagram, the Cardinals-era Keith Hernandez, with his stirrups, quality stache, reported philandering, cookie-cutter, faux-grass home park, old-school manager, and, most importantly, his pack of smokes, would be its union. Just one more reason to love Mex. Thanks, SI, for a job well done. 

Obama's Next Beer Summit?

With the hated Red Sox coming into town for a highly charged four-game series against the streaking Yankees, President Obama has an idea for putting this bitter, century-old rivalry to bed, once and for all. It is High, It is Far, It is... Caught has all the details.

Now that I think about it, Obama does drink a lot. Which is probably why I like him so much. And this picture page is why I like the mad geniuses at It is High, It is Far, It is... Caught so much. Just brilliant. Please click through. 

HankStein

I'm a big fan of fake Twitter accounts. They're about a thousand times more entertaining and illuminating than regular accounts, which, as far as I can tell, are simply 140-character exercises in self-indulgence. YesMichaelKay, for instance, does a great job of tearing apart Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay's annoying verbal tics. ("Hey fans! Don't expect me on day games after night games. That's the fallacy of the predetermined past a diving wormburner etiquette see ya.") 

But YesMichaelKay doesn't even come close to the genius posing as Hank Steinbrenner, son of George. HankStein is an almost pitch-perfect impression of the loud-mouthed and clueless co-owner of the Yankees. In between Marlboro Reds, Hank likes to talk to the media in clipped sentences about the insignificant goings-on within his own head. Take for instance, this little nugget Hank shared with the Daily News about interleague rules.  

I just think it's time the NL joined the 21st century. The AL, the minors, colleges, high schools, they all have DHs.

I mean, really, Hank might as well have posted this drivel on Twitter, a more appropriate forum for such verbal diarrhea. Which is why HankStein is so brilliant. It distills Hank's moxy down to its nicotine-stained essence, and delivers it straight, minus the porous filter that is the New York Yankess PR department. Take the bio, for one: "I own the Yankees. I like cigarettes." Those 102 characters perfectly sum up George's oldest son. I could spend six solid months trying to come up with a more fitting epigram, and couldn't top it. Not even close. It's like a Buddhist koan in its simplicity. 

Here are some of my favorite HankStein tweets, in all their comedic glory: 

• I love a win streak almost as much as I love 72% lean ground beef.
  
• Hey John Henry? Let's settle this like men. A case of Chivas, 2 cartons of Camel unfiltered, a yardstick & a taser. Your place or mine geek?
  
• Joba needs to get his groove back. I suggest some Crown Royal and the nearest strip club. Too much clean livin' makes the boy dull.
  
• In all seriousness, I won't fire Girardi. Hal won't let me. I owe him ever since he made that mistake disappear for me in the Vegas desert
  
• I could think of a lot better ways to blow 210 mill. Thailand for one. With that kind of scratch, they'd make me king.

At this point, it's impossible for me to imagine the real Hank Steinbrenner comporting himself in any other way. It's like the fake Hank has become, at least to me, more relevant than his real-life counterpart. He's like a tougher version of Marge Schott, and a hell of a lot more entertaining. 

Phil Hughes Is Here to Stay

Since giving up a two-run home run to Kevin Youkilis in Boston on June 10, Phil Hughes has been untouchable. In 13 appearances, he's held opposing teams scoreless over 19 innings, allowing only 9 hits and 3 walks, while racking up 24 strikeouts. As a reliever, Hughes is sporting an anemic 0.84 ERA, and his 19-inning scoreless streak is, remarkably, only four innings off Mariano Rivera's 2005 23-inning scoreless streak, the second longest streak of Rivera's Hall of Fame career. I wasn't the only one to foresee Hughes' emerging dominance. 

The kid's figured out how to dominate at the Major League level, primarily out of the pen, in much the same way David Cone starred in relief for the Mets in 1987, before anchoring the rotation a year later, in 1988. In fact, Cone's mentioned this parallel a number of times on the YES broadcast this year, because, I think, he sees in Hughes what I see in him: a top of the line starter in the Major Leagues. Like Joba, Hughes will eventually be a key contributor to the Yankees' revamped starting rotation. After a disastrous 2008 season, Hughes is showing why Cashman refused to include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana, and why he won't be sent to Toronto as part of an MLB-ready package for Roy Halladay. Ladies and gentlemen, Phil Hughes is here to stay.  

Cooperstown Confidential

Over at The Second Pass, a fantastic website about books that's rightfully starting to get a ton of attention, my friend John reviews Zev Chafets' Cooperstown Confidential, an almost total take down of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. As is his wont, John gets right to the heart of the matter: 

Zev Chafets’ Cooperstown Confidential, a slender book that serves as both a revisionist history of the Hall and a polemic in favor of socially liberal admission policies (Pete Rose and steroids users will rejoice if Chafets has any impact on voting patterns), manages to be earnest and playful, though not in the traditional ways described above. Earnest because it spends more time addressing issues like racism and commercialism than whether Bert Blyleven deserves a plaque; and playful because it gleefully spits in the face of anyone who thinks the Hall’s (very thin) Puritanical sheen is anything but a “public relations sham.”

I read a very early version of Chafets' excellent and provocative book, and I'm in total agreement with John. Like the College of Cardinals or the U.S. House of Representatives, the Baseball Hall of Fame is made up of equal parts legends, qualified representatives, quacks, criminals and, yes, cheats. That the Hall of Fame continues to hold itself up as a model of constancy, integrity, even infallibility, is nothing more than clever marketing. Everybody's just selling soap. Chafets, a former columnist for New York's "Daily News," is right to call the Hall out on their spotty history of institutional hypocrisy. His book is worth picking up. 

Obama Owns the Room

Sure, his first pitch left a lot to be desired, but Obama's trips into each team's respective clubhouses more than made up for his on-the-mound miscue. I've said it before: Obama is always, without question, the coolest guy in the room. He talked trash to Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard, called Derek Jeter old, and basically ordered Mark Buehrle, the lone representative from Obama's favorite team, the White Sox, to announce his presence with authority, or something like that. Oh, and he made Ichiro blush like a 1960s schoolgirl meeting the Beatles. In fairness, though, I'm pretty sure that's exactly how I would react, too. 

Pujols To Catch Obama

President Barack Obama will throw out the ceremonial first pitch before Tuesday night's All-Star Game at Busch Stadium to Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols, hometown hero and Major League Baseball's leading vote-getter. The All-Star game is totally lame, a complete waste of time, but let me be clear: I will tune in to check out Obama's moves on the mound. 

(Via Bats)

The Incomparable Mariano Rivera

Lat night, Mariano Rivera recorded his 500th career save--and his first RBI. Rivera, who insists he still has plenty of gas left in the tank, joins Trevor Hoffman on the exclusive list of closers to notch 500 saves. And to think the Yankees signed him for an astonishingly low $3,000 and, back in 1996, even considered trading him. Amazing. Actually, now that I think about it, everything about Mariano is amazing. Here he is talking to ESPN about his career. 

Can Mariano Rivera Delay the Inevitable?

It doesn't take a genius to figure out Mariano Rivera's performance has dipped a bit over the past couple of years. He's still effective, but he's hardly as dominant as he was during the Yankees' championship runs, even with an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio. So, what's wrong with Mo? More than a slight decrease in velocity, Rivera is simply having trouble putting hitters away, specifically getting that all-important swing-and-a-miss. Batters, it seems, are making contact with Mo's cutter and four-seamer with more regularity. To wit: last night, it took Mo 10 pitches to retire Elijah Dukes, who fouled off four consecutive pitches (three cutters and one four-seamer) before grounding out to Robinson Cano. Already, in 27.2 innings, Mo has yielded 27 hits, only 14 less than he gave up all last year. Are we watching the beginning of the end for Mo?

Fangraphs illuminates this disturbing, possibly irreversible, trend. 

Move forward to 2009 and how has Rivera done? Well, noticeably worse is easy to see, but there are some frightening numbers beneath the surface. Rivera's 7.5% swinging strike rate is the lowest on record for him. There has been a sizable dip in the number of pitches thrown within the strike zone and hitters are not chasing these extra balls out of the zone.

Rivera’s ground ball rate is also at its lowest point on record, though that is over a smaller sample than his individual pitch results. It is no surprise then that the home run rate has increased, though the rate by which is has increased is surprising and not likely to continue. Rivera has allowed five home runs already this season through 26.2 innings. The last time he allowed more than five home runs was 1995 when he was a starter.

Interestingly, Rivera’s strikeout and walk rates have not moved much despite the drastic change in his individual pitch outcomes. 32 strikeouts to just two unintentional walks, and no hit batters, gives Rivera an even better ratio than last year. Given his extreme drop in missed bats and overall strikes thrown however, I would not expect that to continue. It will be interesting to see which regression, the strikeout and walk rates or the home run rate, influences Rivera’s final line the most.

I still have faith in Mo. Hell, I'd take him over 99 percent of the league's other closers. Given his age, however, I also have to admit that even the mighty Mariano is going to have to call it quits sometime. Hopefully, he can make some adjustments and deliver a few more postseason runs before he heads off to Cooperstown. 

(UPDATE:) RAB counters. I'm not sure who's right, but it's interesting that the same data can lead to two different conclusions. Half-empty, Half-full, I guess. At least we can agree there's still a glass.