Brett Gardner, Elite Outfielder?

It’s no secret that I’m a fan of Brett Gardner. Although he’s playing well, even better than I thought he would, he still has a long way to go before anyone would begin to consider him anything more than a marginal-to-good center fielder. He’s arguably not even the best center fielder on his team; he’s splitting time with Melky Carbrera. Which is why I was surprised that FanGraphs is ready to declare him one of the best defensive outfielders in the league, a notch below Hunter Pence, Matt Kemp, Ryan Ludwick and Nick Markakis.

Gardner has racked up an incredible +8.4 ARM rating since showing up in the majors last year, and he’s done it in half a season’s worth of playing time. He has 83 “defensive games” as a major league outfielder, meaning that he’s had just over 1/2 of a season’s worth of balls hit to him to turn into outs. The four guys ahead of him are all at 200+ defensive games during this same time span.

This is a ridiculous performance, honestly. Over a full season, Gardner’s +17 pace would easily be double that of the 2008 ARM leader (Pence). He’s been worth almost a win to the Yankees (in half a season!) just by chucking the ball back in from the outfield

These numbers, which are a result of a pretty narrow 754 total career innings, are misleading. As a number of FanGraph commenters rightly pointed out, Gardner does not have a particularly good arm. I'd describe it as somewhere between Damon's pop gun and Melky's cannon. Gardner's fast as hell, which allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield. His ability to get to more balls, though, doesn’t reveal anything telling about his arm strength. Kid’s got only 3 assists in 448 innings this year. 3 assists in 448 innings. Matt Kemp, in comparison, has three times as many assists in twice as many games, while Oakland's Rajai Davis has 4 assists in about 153 less innings, or 17 less games, than Gardner. Call me crazy, but I'm not ready, as FanGraph seems to be, to declare Gardner an elite defensive player. Not even close. 

(Photo stolen from New Stadium Insider)

Can Mariano Rivera Delay the Inevitable?

It doesn't take a genius to figure out Mariano Rivera's performance has dipped a bit over the past couple of years. He's still effective, but he's hardly as dominant as he was during the Yankees' championship runs, even with an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio. So, what's wrong with Mo? More than a slight decrease in velocity, Rivera is simply having trouble putting hitters away, specifically getting that all-important swing-and-a-miss. Batters, it seems, are making contact with Mo's cutter and four-seamer with more regularity. To wit: last night, it took Mo 10 pitches to retire Elijah Dukes, who fouled off four consecutive pitches (three cutters and one four-seamer) before grounding out to Robinson Cano. Already, in 27.2 innings, Mo has yielded 27 hits, only 14 less than he gave up all last year. Are we watching the beginning of the end for Mo?

Fangraphs illuminates this disturbing, possibly irreversible, trend. 

Move forward to 2009 and how has Rivera done? Well, noticeably worse is easy to see, but there are some frightening numbers beneath the surface. Rivera's 7.5% swinging strike rate is the lowest on record for him. There has been a sizable dip in the number of pitches thrown within the strike zone and hitters are not chasing these extra balls out of the zone.

Rivera’s ground ball rate is also at its lowest point on record, though that is over a smaller sample than his individual pitch results. It is no surprise then that the home run rate has increased, though the rate by which is has increased is surprising and not likely to continue. Rivera has allowed five home runs already this season through 26.2 innings. The last time he allowed more than five home runs was 1995 when he was a starter.

Interestingly, Rivera’s strikeout and walk rates have not moved much despite the drastic change in his individual pitch outcomes. 32 strikeouts to just two unintentional walks, and no hit batters, gives Rivera an even better ratio than last year. Given his extreme drop in missed bats and overall strikes thrown however, I would not expect that to continue. It will be interesting to see which regression, the strikeout and walk rates or the home run rate, influences Rivera’s final line the most.

I still have faith in Mo. Hell, I'd take him over 99 percent of the league's other closers. Given his age, however, I also have to admit that even the mighty Mariano is going to have to call it quits sometime. Hopefully, he can make some adjustments and deliver a few more postseason runs before he heads off to Cooperstown. 

(UPDATE:) RAB counters. I'm not sure who's right, but it's interesting that the same data can lead to two different conclusions. Half-empty, Half-full, I guess. At least we can agree there's still a glass.