Brett Gardner, Elite Outfielder?

It’s no secret that I’m a fan of Brett Gardner. Although he’s playing well, even better than I thought he would, he still has a long way to go before anyone would begin to consider him anything more than a marginal-to-good center fielder. He’s arguably not even the best center fielder on his team; he’s splitting time with Melky Carbrera. Which is why I was surprised that FanGraphs is ready to declare him one of the best defensive outfielders in the league, a notch below Hunter Pence, Matt Kemp, Ryan Ludwick and Nick Markakis.

Gardner has racked up an incredible +8.4 ARM rating since showing up in the majors last year, and he’s done it in half a season’s worth of playing time. He has 83 “defensive games” as a major league outfielder, meaning that he’s had just over 1/2 of a season’s worth of balls hit to him to turn into outs. The four guys ahead of him are all at 200+ defensive games during this same time span.

This is a ridiculous performance, honestly. Over a full season, Gardner’s +17 pace would easily be double that of the 2008 ARM leader (Pence). He’s been worth almost a win to the Yankees (in half a season!) just by chucking the ball back in from the outfield

These numbers, which are a result of a pretty narrow 754 total career innings, are misleading. As a number of FanGraph commenters rightly pointed out, Gardner does not have a particularly good arm. I'd describe it as somewhere between Damon's pop gun and Melky's cannon. Gardner's fast as hell, which allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield. His ability to get to more balls, though, doesn’t reveal anything telling about his arm strength. Kid’s got only 3 assists in 448 innings this year. 3 assists in 448 innings. Matt Kemp, in comparison, has three times as many assists in twice as many games, while Oakland's Rajai Davis has 4 assists in about 153 less innings, or 17 less games, than Gardner. Call me crazy, but I'm not ready, as FanGraph seems to be, to declare Gardner an elite defensive player. Not even close. 

(Photo stolen from New Stadium Insider)

Brett Gardner 1, David Ortiz 0

Apropos of yesterday's post, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that Brett Gardner last night joined the very long list of major league players with more home runs than the formerly unstoppable David Ortiz. Not only that, but all of Gardner's power numbers, believe it or not, are either higher than or within striking distance of Ortiz's. 

Gardner's batting average is 13 points higher, and his slugging percentage (total bases divided by number of at bats) is 25 points higher. Granted, Gardner has 50 fewer at bats than Ortiz, which pretty much explains the higher slugging percentage, but should Gardner and Ortiz even be compared as sluggers in the first place? That I'm even doing it speaks volumes about Ortiz's vertiginous drop, and I could have easily substituted for Gardner Pablo Sandoval or Coco Crisp both of whom have higher power numbers than the Artist Formerly Known as Big Papi. If I were a Sox fan, I'd really start to worry about Ortiz. As one Red Sox official recently told Ken Rosenthal, "If [Ortiz's] not hitting in June, our record will not be very good." From his lips to God's ears. 

One More Reason to Love Brett Gardner

He named his son Hunter, Hunter Gardner.  

Brett Gardner and Joey Gathright: Separated at Birth?

Not at first blush, but River Avenue Blues takes a closer look. The similarities are striking. To wit: 

Both players were drafted at age 21 and then assigned to a low level squad in the minors (Gardner went to the short season NY-Penn League, Gathright to the Low-A South Atlantic League). Both players started their age 22 season at the High-A level and earned a midseason bump to Double-A, then started the next year back at Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A in the middle of the season. In their age 24 season, their third full professional season, each player started the year in Triple-A before being called up to the big leagues during the summer and finishing the year there. 

The fun doesn't stop there, though. After breaking down their career statistics, both from the minors and the majors, RAB seems to think Gardner will outperform Gathright in the long run, so to speak. 

[W]e can expect Gardner to be a more productive big leaguer than Joey Gathright. He’s shown better on base skills and a better ability to hit for power throughout his minor league career, and he’s a much more efficient basestealer. Simply put, Gardner’s proven to be much more capable of turning his physical gifts into baseball skills, and in turn, offensive production.

I, for one, would be satisfied if Gardner produced at a level equal to that of Gathright. That he might even be a better all-around player gives me even more hope for the upcoming Yankees season. Although Gathright's career numbers aren't anything to write home about, if Gardner produces at or above a similar output, he won't exactly kill the Yankees as a regular center fielder, even if he's splitting time with Melky. Based on RAB's analysis, Gardner might even help the Yankees-- or least land them a pretty good lefty reliever.