Brett Gardner and Joey Gathright: Separated at Birth?

Not at first blush, but River Avenue Blues takes a closer look. The similarities are striking. To wit: 

Both players were drafted at age 21 and then assigned to a low level squad in the minors (Gardner went to the short season NY-Penn League, Gathright to the Low-A South Atlantic League). Both players started their age 22 season at the High-A level and earned a midseason bump to Double-A, then started the next year back at Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A in the middle of the season. In their age 24 season, their third full professional season, each player started the year in Triple-A before being called up to the big leagues during the summer and finishing the year there. 

The fun doesn't stop there, though. After breaking down their career statistics, both from the minors and the majors, RAB seems to think Gardner will outperform Gathright in the long run, so to speak. 

[W]e can expect Gardner to be a more productive big leaguer than Joey Gathright. He’s shown better on base skills and a better ability to hit for power throughout his minor league career, and he’s a much more efficient basestealer. Simply put, Gardner’s proven to be much more capable of turning his physical gifts into baseball skills, and in turn, offensive production.

I, for one, would be satisfied if Gardner produced at a level equal to that of Gathright. That he might even be a better all-around player gives me even more hope for the upcoming Yankees season. Although Gathright's career numbers aren't anything to write home about, if Gardner produces at or above a similar output, he won't exactly kill the Yankees as a regular center fielder, even if he's splitting time with Melky. Based on RAB's analysis, Gardner might even help the Yankees-- or least land them a pretty good lefty reliever. 

Brett Gardner, Elite Outfielder?

It’s no secret that I’m a fan of Brett Gardner. Although he’s playing well, even better than I thought he would, he still has a long way to go before anyone would begin to consider him anything more than a marginal-to-good center fielder. He’s arguably not even the best center fielder on his team; he’s splitting time with Melky Carbrera. Which is why I was surprised that FanGraphs is ready to declare him one of the best defensive outfielders in the league, a notch below Hunter Pence, Matt Kemp, Ryan Ludwick and Nick Markakis.

Gardner has racked up an incredible +8.4 ARM rating since showing up in the majors last year, and he’s done it in half a season’s worth of playing time. He has 83 “defensive games” as a major league outfielder, meaning that he’s had just over 1/2 of a season’s worth of balls hit to him to turn into outs. The four guys ahead of him are all at 200+ defensive games during this same time span.

This is a ridiculous performance, honestly. Over a full season, Gardner’s +17 pace would easily be double that of the 2008 ARM leader (Pence). He’s been worth almost a win to the Yankees (in half a season!) just by chucking the ball back in from the outfield

These numbers, which are a result of a pretty narrow 754 total career innings, are misleading. As a number of FanGraph commenters rightly pointed out, Gardner does not have a particularly good arm. I'd describe it as somewhere between Damon's pop gun and Melky's cannon. Gardner's fast as hell, which allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield. His ability to get to more balls, though, doesn’t reveal anything telling about his arm strength. Kid’s got only 3 assists in 448 innings this year. 3 assists in 448 innings. Matt Kemp, in comparison, has three times as many assists in twice as many games, while Oakland's Rajai Davis has 4 assists in about 153 less innings, or 17 less games, than Gardner. Call me crazy, but I'm not ready, as FanGraph seems to be, to declare Gardner an elite defensive player. Not even close. 

(Photo stolen from New Stadium Insider)

Brett Gardner 1, David Ortiz 0

Apropos of yesterday's post, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that Brett Gardner last night joined the very long list of major league players with more home runs than the formerly unstoppable David Ortiz. Not only that, but all of Gardner's power numbers, believe it or not, are either higher than or within striking distance of Ortiz's. 

Gardner's batting average is 13 points higher, and his slugging percentage (total bases divided by number of at bats) is 25 points higher. Granted, Gardner has 50 fewer at bats than Ortiz, which pretty much explains the higher slugging percentage, but should Gardner and Ortiz even be compared as sluggers in the first place? That I'm even doing it speaks volumes about Ortiz's vertiginous drop, and I could have easily substituted for Gardner Pablo Sandoval or Coco Crisp both of whom have higher power numbers than the Artist Formerly Known as Big Papi. If I were a Sox fan, I'd really start to worry about Ortiz. As one Red Sox official recently told Ken Rosenthal, "If [Ortiz's] not hitting in June, our record will not be very good." From his lips to God's ears. 

One More Reason to Love Brett Gardner

He named his son Hunter, Hunter Gardner.  

IPK

Two seasons ago, when the Minnesota Twins were shopping Johan Santana, the team’s front office reportedly asked Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman for Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. For many fans, this was, in the parlance of sports talk radio, a no-brainer. Cashman, though, took his time making his decision. Why give up, Cashman reasoned, a serviceable outfielder and two promising young arms, especially when Santana’s contract was about to expire? Cashman figured he’d end up paying for Santana twice, first with a package of young, cost-controlled talent and, later, with a lengthy, multi-million-dollar contract. Cashman, to the dismay of many, passed, and Santana was shipped to the Mets for, it must be noted, a lesser package.

At first, Cashman’s decision didn’t look too good. Cabrera, predictably so, regressed. Hughes stunk. And Kennedy, a soft tossing, finesse pitcher, got rocked to the tune of an 8.17 ERA and a 1.916 WHIP. Even worse, he didn't care. The Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in 12 years, and New Yorkers, true to form, spent most of the season ripping Cashman for his decision not to go after Santana.

Cashman, though, rebounded in the winter, signing CC Sabathia, which helped solidify the starting rotation. (The signing of A.J. Burnett and the resigning of Andy Pettitte helped a great deal, too). Meanwhile, two of the players Cashman refused to part with rebounded from a disastrous season. Mellky, pushed by the addition of Brett Gardner, is playing a serviceable outfiled, and Hughes has been a revelation since moving to the 8th inning.

But what about the third, Ian Patrick Kennedy?

After spending most of the second half of the 2008 season in Scranton, Kennedy was sent to play in the Puerto Rican Winter League, where he posted a league-low 1.56 ERA, seemingly rediscovering the better-than-average control that inspired the Yankees to select him in the first round of the 2006 MLB Draft. By the middle of Spring Training, Kennedy, still only 24, had regained the respect of his manager, and was back in the team’s plans for the future.

A few weeks later, though, Kennedy, pitching well in the minors, left a game with numbness in the middle finger of his right hand, which was diagnosed a vasospasm in his right middle finger. Doctors later discovered an aneurysm in an artery near his right shoulder. His season—and, quite possibly, his career—was thought to be over.

But Kennedy fought back, working his way back to professional baseball. Last night, he pitched three hitless innings in his first Triple-A start since his surgery in May. Kennedy struck out the side in the first inning (Ed. Note: the Durham Bulls made contact on one of his first 15 pitches) and struck out two in the second. He racked up his sixth and final strikeout in the third, sandwiched between a flyout and groundout. After 50 very good pitches, Kennedy’s night was through.

“Everything felt good,” Kennedy said. “I got ahead of guys. My fastball command was better than in my first [rehab] outing. I felt back to normal again, and it’s much more comfortable pitching at that adrenalin rush rather than like my first outing when I couldn’t control it.”

This could be a big boost for the Yankees next season, as Kennedy still projects as a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter. Even if he doesn't crack the rotation, though, it's nice to see the kid pitching again. 

Hit Tracker

I've been doing my part to refute the notion that the new Yankee Stadium is a bandbox, an argument that is proving more and more difficult to make with each passing day. To wit: in 24 road games this season, the Yankees have hit 32 home runs. In one less home game, they have 45, or 13 more. More telling, however, as Peter Abraham points out, is the fact that the new Stadium yields approximately 3.78 total home runs per game, while Citizens Bank Park and Rangers Ballpark--two notoriously hitter-friendly parks-- only give up three per game. Case Closed. 

Abraham compiled his stats via Hit Tracker , one of the coolest websites I've come across in a very long time. It's full of interesting information, like which player's hit the longest home run in the Majors this year: As of this morning, Raul Ibanez, May 22, off Chien-Ming Wang at Yankee Stadium. 

And the shortest, Howie Kendrick's limp-wristed bloop off Gil Meche on May 8, at Angel Stadium. (Ed. Note: I'm not counting Brett Gardner's inside-the-park home run, for obvious reasons).

The site also posits which home runs would have gone out of other parks around the league. Ibanez's shot, for instance, would have cleared the walls of all 30; Kendrick's, on the other hand, wouldn't have been a home run in any other park. Not surprisingly, Yankee Stadium has a lot of low numbers in this particular category. The site also suggests that David Ortiz's sole home run this season, a 381-foot drive off of Brett Cecil, would have remained in the field of play in every other park besides Fenway.  

Such a great website.