Showing posts with label Stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stats. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Derek Jeter is Underrated

Believe it or not, this is the growing consensus. After going after Jeter for a few grafs, SI's Joe Posnanski, a Bill James-type writer if there ever was one, finally celebrates the Yankees captain and his remarkable 2009 season.  He writes:
I think that in many ways Derek Jeter this year has added a third title. He has, against all odds, become UNDERRATED. And that is a wicked turn. I think Jeter at 35 is having one of his greatest seasons. I think he's playing defense better than he ever has, he's getting on base and slugging like he did in his prime, and in my view he has been the Yankees most valuable player in 2009. And, for once, it's funny, I don't hear too many other people talking about it.
For years, Jeter's abilities, specifically his defensive chops, have been simultaneously championed and dismissed by his admirers and detractors. His fans, as Posnanski points out, argue that Jeter's greatness cannot be measured by simple statistics. How, his fans argue, can you quantify this or this? His detractors, on the other hand, highlight his limited range and declining UZR rating. And, you know what, both camps are right. From year to year, Jeter, while playing at an enviably high level, isn't the best shortstop in the league. (Hell, when A-Rod came over in 2004, Jeter, some argued, wasn't even the best shortstop on his team). This year, too, for instance, Florida's Hanley Ramirez and Tampa's Jason Bartlett enjoy better offensive numbers, while Texas' Elvis Andrus, Milwaukee's J.J. Hardy, Toronto's Marco Scutaro and Los Angeles' Raphael Furcal, according to FanGraphs, are better defensively. 

Since he broke into the league, though, Jeter's been one hell of a baseball player. It's about time his numbers, the hitherto computable evidence against him, are finally in step with what Jeter's fans have been saying for years. He's simply one of the best in the game. 

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Brett Gardner, Elite Outfielder?

It’s no secret that I’m a fan of Brett Gardner. Although he’s playing well, even better than I thought he would, he still has a long way to go before anyone would begin to consider him anything more than a marginal-to-good center fielder. He’s arguably not even the best center fielder on his team; he’s splitting time with Melky Carbrera. Which is why I was surprised that FanGraphs is ready to declare him one of the best defensive outfielders in the league, a notch below Hunter Pence, Matt Kemp, Ryan Ludwick and Nick Markakis.
Gardner has racked up an incredible +8.4 ARM rating since showing up in the majors last year, and he’s done it in half a season’s worth of playing time. He has 83 “defensive games” as a major league outfielder, meaning that he’s had just over 1/2 of a season’s worth of balls hit to him to turn into outs. The four guys ahead of him are all at 200+ defensive games during this same time span.

This is a ridiculous performance, honestly. Over a full season, Gardner’s +17 pace would easily be double that of the 2008 ARM leader (Pence). He’s been worth almost a win to the Yankees (in half a season!) just by chucking the ball back in from the outfield
These numbers, which are a result of a pretty narrow 754 total career innings, are misleading. As a number of FanGraph commenters rightly pointed out, Gardner does not have a particularly good arm. I'd describe it as somewhere between Damon's pop gun and Melky's cannon. Gardner's fast as hell, which allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield. His ability to get to more balls, though, doesn’t reveal anything telling about his arm strength. Kid’s got only 3 assists in 448 innings this year. 3 assists in 448 innings. Matt Kemp, in comparison, has three times as many assists in twice as many games, while Oakland's Rajai Davis has 4 assists in about 153 less innings, or 17 less games, than Gardner. Call me crazy, but I'm not ready, as FanGraph seems to be, to declare Gardner an elite defensive player. Not even close. 

(Photo stolen from New Stadium Insider)