Can the Braves Win the Wild Card?

With the Yankees running away with the American League East, I’m now officially turning my attention to the Atlanta Braves and the National League Wild Card race. Before the season started, I somewhat foolishly predicted that the Braves would win the National League East, with the lowly and astonishingly bad Mets taking the Wild Card. Today, though, my money’s on the Braves taking the Wild Card.

Since the end of June, the Braves, believe it or not, own the second-best record in the National League, going 32 -18 over the past two months. They are now a season-high eight games over .500. But they still have their work cut out for them. As of this morning, with 38 games to play, the Braves sit a distant four games behind the streaking Colorado Rockies, winners of 53 of their last 79. They’d also have to overtake a strong, but shaky San Francisco Giants team, and hold off the stubborn Florida Marlins, reasonable but certainly not inevitable outcomes.

I think, then, that the Wild Card is going to come down to a two-team race between the Braves and the Rockies. If the Braves are going to pull this off, though, they’re going to have to rely on their starting pitching, because their hitting (Brian McCann’s recent outstanding contributions notwithstanding) leaves a lot to be desired. Atlanta’s rotation—Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami and rookie Tommy Hanson, with rehabbing Tim Hudson waiting in the wings—enjoys a healthy 3.54 ERA, the fourth lowest in the National League and more than half-a-run better than their Colorado counterparts (including the recently disabled Aaron Cook), which sports a somewhat pedestrian 4.14 ERA. 

At the same time, the Braves’ bullpen, anchored by closer Rafael Soriano and set-up man Mike Gonzalez, is, arguably, one of the most reliable in the National League. The Braves’ pitching staff, as whole, also possesses a formidable 7.5 strikeouts per 9 innings, compared to Colorado’s 6.9, a significant advantage that could help the Braves eek by the Rockies before the season ends.

What else is working in the Braves advantage? Not much, actually. Both Atlanta and Colorado have five series remaining against teams above .500, while Colorado enjoys only three more remaining home games (22) than the Braves (19). Pretty even, I’d say. Honestly, I have no idea whether or not the Braves can pull this out, but I’m looking forward to watching them give the Rockies, everybody’s flavor of the month, a run for their money.