Damn Braves

I’d like to thank the good lord for making me a Yankees fan. If I had to root for the Braves, I’d be an ornery, frustrated bastard. The Braves, winners of seven straight, have run hot and cold all season. They started the year 33-40, losing some pretty brutal games in the season’s first-half, before recovering with an impressive 44-28 run. This season alone, they’ve had four separate four-game losing streaks and two five-game losing streaks to go along with one four-game winning streak and three five-game winning streaks.

They are maddeningly inconsistent.

Take, for instance, their recent seven-game winning streak, extended last night with a come-from-behind victory over the hapless Mets. The recent streak sounds pretty good, particularly down the stretch in a pennant race. Impressive, at least, until you realize the Braves previously dropped six of seven immediately before their current wining streak. 6 down; 7 up. Nautically speaking, there is little difference between the Braves and an ocean buoy. (Ed. Note: Thanks, Bob Sullivan.) 

This morning, the Braves find themselves a season-high 10 games over .500, 4.5 games behind the Colorado Rockies for the Wild Card, with 16 games to play. If the Rockies go 7-8 over their final 15 games, the Braves would have to go 12-4 just to force a tie. Mathematically, the Braves are still in it. If I were a betting man, though, I’d sit this one out, preseason predictions be damned.

Can the Braves Win the Wild Card?

With the Yankees running away with the American League East, I’m now officially turning my attention to the Atlanta Braves and the National League Wild Card race. Before the season started, I somewhat foolishly predicted that the Braves would win the National League East, with the lowly and astonishingly bad Mets taking the Wild Card. Today, though, my money’s on the Braves taking the Wild Card.

Since the end of June, the Braves, believe it or not, own the second-best record in the National League, going 32 -18 over the past two months. They are now a season-high eight games over .500. But they still have their work cut out for them. As of this morning, with 38 games to play, the Braves sit a distant four games behind the streaking Colorado Rockies, winners of 53 of their last 79. They’d also have to overtake a strong, but shaky San Francisco Giants team, and hold off the stubborn Florida Marlins, reasonable but certainly not inevitable outcomes.

I think, then, that the Wild Card is going to come down to a two-team race between the Braves and the Rockies. If the Braves are going to pull this off, though, they’re going to have to rely on their starting pitching, because their hitting (Brian McCann’s recent outstanding contributions notwithstanding) leaves a lot to be desired. Atlanta’s rotation—Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami and rookie Tommy Hanson, with rehabbing Tim Hudson waiting in the wings—enjoys a healthy 3.54 ERA, the fourth lowest in the National League and more than half-a-run better than their Colorado counterparts (including the recently disabled Aaron Cook), which sports a somewhat pedestrian 4.14 ERA. 

At the same time, the Braves’ bullpen, anchored by closer Rafael Soriano and set-up man Mike Gonzalez, is, arguably, one of the most reliable in the National League. The Braves’ pitching staff, as whole, also possesses a formidable 7.5 strikeouts per 9 innings, compared to Colorado’s 6.9, a significant advantage that could help the Braves eek by the Rockies before the season ends.

What else is working in the Braves advantage? Not much, actually. Both Atlanta and Colorado have five series remaining against teams above .500, while Colorado enjoys only three more remaining home games (22) than the Braves (19). Pretty even, I’d say. Honestly, I have no idea whether or not the Braves can pull this out, but I’m looking forward to watching them give the Rockies, everybody’s flavor of the month, a run for their money.